Assay

Financial-condition grades for SEC filers

Company Report · as of Oct 9, 2026

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MethodCoverageAbout
Red Cat Holdings, Inc.RCAT · business equipment
GradeNonecomputable_factors_below_threshold: 5 of 14 inputs computable; 7 are required
Reliability0.87 AUCfailure model, filers with $120M to $591M assets; 95% interval 0.83 to 0.90; 206 events, 2020 to 2025
Peer failure rate1.03% a yearItem 1.03 bankruptcies, same asset band, 2012 to 2025
Size band$120M to $591M assetstotal assets $273.7M[1]
Standard universeinsiderevenue above $1M and assets above $10M[1-2]
Warningsdilution, thin data · fortress balance sheetnot computable: short runway, distress
Inputs computable5 of 14
Graded fromfilings received through Mar 19, 2026204 days before the rescan; every figure keyed to the SEC receipt date
Last close$5.912026-10-08; market equity $901.8M; iex feed
Price used in gradeNone
Share price, twelve months to the rescansplit-adjusted close; a lollipop at every rescan carries the letter held then; baseline ticks are SEC receipt dates of the inputs; ranges and dragging scroll the full history
$5$10$15NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct$5.91
ABCDE20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Percentile at every rescan on file, Jan 21, 2012 to Oct 9, 2026; stronger toward the top. Hover for the date.

Open this report as it stood on

Letter setLetterPercentileBand
Jan 21, 2012nonen/a
Apr 21, 2012nonen/aQ1
Aug 21, 2022nonen/aQ2
Aug 21, 2024C55.4Q2
Apr 21, 2025nonen/aQ2
Mar 21, 2026nonen/aQ3

Each date opens the report as it stood on that rescan.

Business, in the company's words. Opening of Item 1 of the 10-K received Mar 19, 2026; the document on sec.gov.

We are a U.S.-based provider of advanced all-domain drone and robotic solutions for defense, national security, and commercial applications. We develop American-made hardware and software that supports military, government, and public safety operations across air, land, and sea. Our family of systems delivers tactical capabilities in small, unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) and uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), delivering integrated platforms designed to enhance safety and multi-domain mission effectiveness. We were originally incorporated under the laws of the State of Colorado in 1984 under the name Oravest International, Inc. In November 2016, we changed our name to TimefireVR, Inc.

Warnings [top]

Dilution. split-adjusted year-over-year share growth is 41.4%[3-4]
Thin data. 5 of 14 grade factors are computable; minimum is 7
Fortress balance sheet. cash minus debt is 7,045 USD; Altman Z is not used[5-6]

7 checks ran; none of them enters the letter. The checks are listed on the warnings screen.

The Fourteen Inputs [top]

Lower percentile is stronger. Source numbers open the SEC filing; a range that spans filings opens the sources table.

InputPercentile, 0 to 100ValueSourcePeer medianPercentilePeersPeriod end
Profitability, sleeve percentile 94.1
Gross profitability0.5%[1,7]28.5%93.95582025-12-31
Return on invested capitalnot computable10.9%
required facts have no common fiscal period end
Accruals ratio10.4%[1,8-10](7.4%)94.46212025-12-31
Gross margin stability, five yearsnot computable2.4 pts
five consecutive annual gross margins are required
Solvency, sleeve percentile 5.6
Twelve-month failure probabilitynot computable0.05%
latest liabilities, cash plus short-term investments, book equity, and shares are required
Altman Z double-prime10.37[1,11-16]2.188.15662025-12-31
Net debt to EBITDAnot computable1.11x
required facts have no common fiscal period end
Interest coveragenot computable3.77x
interest expense must exceed $100,000
Current ratio15.29x[11-12]2.02x3.26662025-12-31
Growth and financing, sleeve percentile 90.4
Revenue growth, three-year compoundnot computable6.4%
four consecutive annual observations are required
Free cash flow growth, three-year compoundnot computable17.2%
four consecutive annual FCF observations are required; found 6
Reinvestment ratenot computable14.3%
pretax income must exceed the validity floor and imply a 0%-100% tax rate
Asset growth, three yearsnot computable5.0%
four consecutive annual observations are required
Net share issuance, one year41.4%[3-4]0.5%90.44072026-03-17

Gross profitability. Revenue less cost of goods sold, over total assets.

Accruals ratio. Net income less operating cash flow, over average assets; lower is stronger.

Gross margin stability, five years. Standard deviation of gross margin; lower is stronger.

Twelve-month failure probability. CHS model; lower is stronger.

Net debt to EBITDA. Lower is stronger.

Net share issuance, one year. Split-adjusted; lower is stronger.

Among 497 Peers [top]

What the Price Implies [top]

Market measures at the 2026-10-08 close. None enters the grade. Percentile among graded peers with the same measure.

MeasureValuePeer medianPercentileReading
Twelve-month price change, skipping the latest month(17.0%)2.2%33hotter than 33 of 100 peers
Distance from 52-week high(66.0%)(30.0%)14closer to its high than 14 of 100 peers
EBIT to enterprise value(8.0%)1.5%17pricier than 83 of 100 peers
Free cash flow yield(10.6%)2.7%15pricier than 85 of 100 peers
Book value to price0.520.2375pricier than 25 of 100 peers
Sales to price0.050.308pricier than 92 of 100 peers
Composite equity issuance, five years115.2%3.9%94more equity-funded than 94 of 100 peers
Relative strength against the sector, log excess return(0.47)(0.26)33ahead of 33 of 100 peers

Inputs: market equity $902.5M; EBIT -$66.6M; free cash flow -$95.8M; book equity $471.2M; sales $40.7M; debt $892,000; cash $66.1M[17].

Diagnostics [top]

Diagnostics do not feed the grade.

Piotroski F-score: None of 9, period end 2025-12-31
Return on assets above zero(129.6%)✗ fail[8,10]
Operating cash flow above zero-$89.1M✗ fail[9]
Return on assets improvedn/a[8,10]
Operating cash flow exceeds net income-$17.1M✗ fail[8-9]
Long-term leverage felln/a[1,10]
Current ratio improved911.3 pts✓ pass[11-12,18-19]
No new shares issued41.4%✗ fail[3-4]
Gross margin improvedn/a[2,7]
Asset turnover improvedn/a[2,10]
Cash, filings, liquidity
Cash and equivalentsn/a
Operating cash flow, four quartersn/a[9,20-23]
Months of runwaynot finite
cash is missing at the end of the latest cash-flow quarter
Late filings, two years0
NT 10-K or NT 10-Q
Days since last periodic filing64
10-Q received Aug 6, 2026
Median daily dollar volume$55.9M
63 sessions
Days since newest grade input204

Downloads [top]

Sources [top]

Every citation on this page. Filing opens the SEC index page for that submission; viewer opens the SEC interactive data for the same filing; series opens the SEC XBRL API record for that tag and company.

#ConceptXBRL tagValuePeriod endReceivedFormLinks
1assetsus-gaap:Assets$273.7M2025-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
2revenueus-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax$40.7M2025-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
3shares outstandingdei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding121,138,7642026-03-172026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
4shares outstandingdei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding85,647,6182025-03-282025-03-3110-KTfiling · viewer · series
5cashus-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue$7,0452013-12-312014-03-1710-Kfiling · viewer · series
6total debtus-gaap:LongTermDebt$02013-12-312014-03-1710-Kfiling · viewer · series
7gross profitus-gaap:GrossProfit$1.3M2025-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
8net incomeus-gaap:NetIncomeLoss-$72.1M2025-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
9operating cash flowus-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations-$89.1M2025-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
10assetsus-gaap:Assets$55.6M2024-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
11current assetsus-gaap:AssetsCurrent$226.9M2025-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
12current liabilitiesus-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent$14.8M2025-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
13retained earningsus-gaap:RetainedEarningsAccumulatedDeficit-$196.8M2025-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
14operating incomeus-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss-$66.6M2025-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
15book equityus-gaap:StockholdersEquity$245.8M2025-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
16liabilitiesus-gaap:Liabilities$27.8M2025-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
17shares outstandingdei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding152,714,3622026-08-042026-08-0610-Qfiling · viewer · series
18current assetsus-gaap:AssetsCurrent$25.8M2024-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
19current liabilitiesus-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent$4.2M2024-12-312026-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
20operating cash flowus-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities-$78.7M2026-06-302026-08-0610-Qfiling · viewer · series
21operating cash flowus-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities-$31.9M2026-03-312026-05-0710-Qfiling · viewer · series
22operating cash flowus-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations-$52.7M2025-09-302025-11-1310-Qfiling · viewer · series
23operating cash flowus-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations-$28.8M2025-06-302025-08-1410-Qfiling · viewer · series

Limitations [top]

Peer group. Sector assignment from four-digit SIC codes, hand-tuned and published. The grade under three alternative peer policies is tabled above.

Size. Within a sector the letter tracks size. Among graded filers in the smallest asset band, 72% grade E and 0% grade A; in the largest, 13% grade E and 21% grade A. Universe as of Oct 9, 2026.

Failure model. filings 2012-01-01 to 2019-12-31 fit, filings 2020-01-01 to 2025-12-31 test; status post hoc pending confirmation. pre-registered on 2026 filings once their 12-month outcome windows close; supported if the paired per-quintile gain over the pooled model has a lower bound above 0.05.

Input validity. Revenue or total assets at or below $100,000 sets the degenerate-inputs flag. An input whose denominator is at or below $100,000 is left not computable rather than ranked.

Returns. No input on this page has a post-2015 confidence interval on returns that excludes zero. The grade ranks reported financial condition and is not a return forecast.

Informational and educational only. Not investment advice. SEC and market data may contain errors.

If you have any comments about this page, the methodology and every line of code that produced it are in the public repository. However, due to the limited number of personnel, we are unable to provide a direct response.

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Source
GitHub · ezrakruger.cc
Photographs from Wikimedia Commons

bull: Raphael Schön from Vienna, Austria, CC BY 2.0; bear: U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service - Northeast Region, Public domain; elk: Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife, Public domain; tortoise: NPS, Public domain; sloth: Charles J. Sharp, CC BY-SA 3.0; fox: Cp9asngf, CC BY-SA 4.0; sector-business_equipment: Sangitiana Fararano, CC BY-SA 2.0; sector-healthcare: User:Squidonius, myself, and User:Beliason (assumed)., CC BY-SA 4.0; sector-manufacturing: unknown, CC BY-SA 2.0; sector-shops: Wilfredor, CC BY-SA 4.0; sector-consumer_nondurables: Nielsoncaetanosalmeron, CC BY 4.0; sector-utilities: Lijovklm, CC BY-SA 4.0; sector-consumer_durables: Stilfehler, CC BY-SA 4.0; sector-chemicals: PEO ACWA, CC BY 2.0; sector-energy: Arne Hückelheim, CC BY-SA 3.0; sector-telecom: Wikideas1, CC0; sector-other: Downtowngal, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Updated Oct 9, 2026