Assay

Financial-condition grades for SEC filers

Company Report · as of Oct 9, 2026

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MethodCoverageAbout
Sera Prognostics, Inc.SERA · healthcare
GradeNonecomputable_factors_below_threshold: 6 of 14 inputs computable; 7 are required
Reliability0.83 AUCfailure model, filers with $12.5M to $120M assets; 95% interval 0.79 to 0.86; 201 events, 2020 to 2025
Peer failure rate1.07% a yearItem 1.03 bankruptcies, same asset band, 2012 to 2025
Size band$12.5M to $120M assetstotal assets $101.9M[1]
Standard universeoutsiderevenue above $1M and assets above $10M[1-2]
Warningsshort runway, thin data, degenerate inputsnot computable: dilution, distress, fortress balance sheet
Inputs computable6 of 14
Graded fromfilings received through Mar 18, 2026205 days before the rescan; every figure keyed to the SEC receipt date
Last close$2.022026-10-05; market equity $59.3M; iex feed
Price used in gradeNone
Share price, twelve months to the rescansplit-adjusted close; a lollipop at every rescan carries the letter held then; baseline ticks are SEC receipt dates of the inputs; ranges and dragging scroll the full history
$2$3NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct$2.02
ABCDE20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Percentile at every rescan on file, Jan 21, 2012 to Oct 9, 2026; stronger toward the top. Hover for the date.

Open this report as it stood on

Letter setLetterPercentileBand
Jan 21, 2012nonen/a
Apr 21, 2022nonen/aQ3
Apr 21, 2023nonen/aQ2

Each date opens the report as it stood on that rescan.

Business, in the company's words. Opening of Item 1 of the 10-K received Mar 18, 2026; the document on sec.gov.

We are a women’s health company utilizing our proprietary proteomics and bioinformatics platform, and significant data resources to improve maternal and neonatal health by discovering, developing, and commercializing blood-based biomarker tests, and predictive analytic products and services. Our vision is to become the global leader in high-value women’s health diagnostics. We plan to do this by taking a holistic approach to providing pivotal and actionable information to pregnant women, their physicians, and health care payers to significantly enhance a mother’s pregnancy journey, improve maternal and neonatal health, and reduce health care costs.

Warnings [top]

Short runway. cash runway is 1.9 months[3]
Thin data. 6 of 14 grade factors are computable; minimum is 7
Degenerate inputs. latest revenue or assets are at or below the $100,000 validity floor[1-2]

7 checks ran; none of them enters the letter. The checks are listed on the warnings screen.

The Fourteen Inputs [top]

Lower percentile is stronger. Source numbers open the SEC filing; a range that spans filings opens the sources table.

InputPercentile, 0 to 100ValueSourcePeer medianPercentilePeersPeriod end
Profitability, sleeve percentile 75.1
Gross profitability(0.08%)[1-2,4]32.2%97.03722025-12-31
Return on invested capitalnot computable9.3%
one or more required annual facts are missing
Accruals ratio(7.2%)[1,5-7](6.6%)53.18112025-12-31
Gross margin stability, five yearsnot computable2.8 pts
five annual gross margins are required; found 2
Solvency, sleeve percentile 68.0
Twelve-month failure probabilitynot computable0.07%
liabilities and a nearby cover-page share count are required at 2026-06-30
Altman Z double-prime(8.32)[1,8-13](0.31)59.17562025-12-31
Net debt to EBITDAnot computable1.82x
one or more required annual facts are missing
Interest coveragenot computable(4.51x)
interest expense must exceed $100,000
Current ratio1.69x[8-9]2.96x76.88392025-12-31
Growth and financing, sleeve percentile 76.9
Revenue growth, three-year compound(32.9%)[2,14-16]10.0%92.34152025-12-31
Free cash flow growth, three-year compoundnot computable10.9%
current FCF must be positive and base FCF must exceed $100,000
Reinvestment ratenot computable37.1%
NOPAT must exceed $100,000
Asset growth, three years(4.3%)[1,7,17-18]2.1%61.57042025-12-31
Net share issuance, one yearnot computable2.5%
two annual share counts are required; found 0

Gross profitability. Revenue less cost of goods sold, over total assets.

Accruals ratio. Net income less operating cash flow, over average assets; lower is stronger.

Gross margin stability, five years. Standard deviation of gross margin; lower is stronger.

Twelve-month failure probability. CHS model; lower is stronger.

Net debt to EBITDA. Lower is stronger.

Net share issuance, one year. Split-adjusted; lower is stronger.

Among 371 Peers [top]

What the Price Implies [top]

Market measures at the 2026-10-05 close. None enters the grade. Percentile among graded peers with the same measure.

MeasureValuePeer medianPercentileReading
Twelve-month price change, skipping the latest month(30.7%)8.0%24hotter than 24 of 100 peers
Distance from 52-week high(46.1%)(31.4%)31closer to its high than 31 of 100 peers
EBIT to enterprise valuenot computable(1.5%)required accounting or market input is missing
Free cash flow yield(44.5%)(1.0%)13pricier than 87 of 100 peers
Book value to price1.000.2886pricier than 14 of 100 peers
Sales to price0.000.313pricier than 97 of 100 peers
Composite equity issuance, five yearsnot computable20.3%required accounting or market input is missing
Relative strength against the sector, log excess return(0.58)(0.14)24ahead of 24 of 100 peers

Inputs: market equity $59.2M; EBIT -$36.5M; free cash flow -$26.3M; book equity $59.4M; sales $81,000; cash $4.4M[19].

Diagnostics [top]

Diagnostics do not feed the grade.

Piotroski F-score: None of 9, period end 2025-12-31
Return on assets above zero(44.0%)✗ fail[5,7]
Operating cash flow above zero-$25.6M✗ fail[6]
Return on assets improved(9.5 pts)✗ fail[5,7,17,20]
Operating cash flow exceeds net income$6.3M✓ pass[5-6]
Long-term leverage felln/a[1,7,17]
Current ratio improved(23.6 pts)✗ fail[8-9,21-22]
No new shares issuedn/a
Gross margin improvedn/a[2,4,14,23]
Asset turnover improved0.0 pts✓ pass[2,7,14,17]
Cash, filings, liquidity
Cash and equivalents$4.4M[3]
Operating cash flow, four quarters-$27.7M[3,6,24-27]
Months of runway1.9
Late filings, two years0
NT 10-K or NT 10-Q
Days since last periodic filing58
10-Q received Aug 12, 2026
Median daily dollar volume$42,253
63 sessions
Days since newest grade input205

Downloads [top]

Sources [top]

Every citation on this page. Filing opens the SEC index page for that submission; viewer opens the SEC interactive data for the same filing; series opens the SEC XBRL API record for that tag and company.

#ConceptXBRL tagValuePeriod endReceivedFormLinks
1assetsus-gaap:Assets$101.9M2025-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
2revenueus-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax$81,0002025-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
3cashus-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue$4.4M2026-06-302026-08-1210-Qfiling · viewer · series
4cost of revenueus-gaap:CostOfRevenue$164,0002025-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
5net incomeus-gaap:NetIncomeLoss-$31.9M2025-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
6operating cash flowus-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities-$25.6M2025-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
7assetsus-gaap:Assets$72.6M2024-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
8current assetsus-gaap:AssetsCurrent$40.8M2025-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
9current liabilitiesus-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent$24.2M2025-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
10retained earningsus-gaap:RetainedEarningsAccumulatedDeficit-$311.7M2025-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
11operating incomeus-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss-$36.5M2025-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
12book equityus-gaap:StockholdersEquity$75.4M2025-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
13liabilitiesus-gaap:Liabilities$26.5M2025-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
14revenueus-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax$77,0002024-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
15revenueus-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax$306,0002023-12-312025-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
16revenueus-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax$268,0002022-12-312024-03-2010-Kfiling · viewer · series
17assetsus-gaap:Assets$95.4M2023-12-312025-03-1910-Kfiling · viewer · series
18assetsus-gaap:Assets$116.3M2022-12-312024-03-2010-Kfiling · viewer · series
19shares outstandingdei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding29,293,8312021-08-252021-08-3010-Qfiling · viewer · series
20net incomeus-gaap:NetIncomeLoss-$32.9M2024-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
21current assetsus-gaap:AssetsCurrent$47.6M2024-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
22current liabilitiesus-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent$24.8M2024-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
23cost of revenueus-gaap:CostOfRevenue$82,0002024-12-312026-03-1810-Kfiling · viewer · series
24operating cash flowus-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities-$15.1M2026-06-302026-08-1210-Qfiling · viewer · series
25operating cash flowus-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities-$8.8M2026-03-312026-05-0610-Qfiling · viewer · series
26operating cash flowus-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities-$19.5M2025-09-302025-11-1310-Qfiling · viewer · series
27operating cash flowus-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities-$13.0M2025-06-302026-08-1210-Qfiling · viewer · series

Limitations [top]

Peer group. Sector assignment from four-digit SIC codes, hand-tuned and published. The grade under three alternative peer policies is tabled above.

Size. Within a sector the letter tracks size. Among graded filers in the smallest asset band, 72% grade E and 0% grade A; in the largest, 13% grade E and 21% grade A. Universe as of Oct 9, 2026.

Failure model. filings 2012-01-01 to 2019-12-31 fit, filings 2020-01-01 to 2025-12-31 test; status post hoc pending confirmation. pre-registered on 2026 filings once their 12-month outcome windows close; supported if the paired per-quintile gain over the pooled model has a lower bound above 0.05.

Input validity. Revenue or total assets at or below $100,000 sets the degenerate-inputs flag. An input whose denominator is at or below $100,000 is left not computable rather than ranked.

Returns. No input on this page has a post-2015 confidence interval on returns that excludes zero. The grade ranks reported financial condition and is not a return forecast.

Informational and educational only. Not investment advice. SEC and market data may contain errors.

If you have any comments about this page, the methodology and every line of code that produced it are in the public repository. However, due to the limited number of personnel, we are unable to provide a direct response.

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Source
GitHub · ezrakruger.cc
Photographs from Wikimedia Commons

bull: Raphael Schön from Vienna, Austria, CC BY 2.0; bear: U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service - Northeast Region, Public domain; elk: Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife, Public domain; tortoise: NPS, Public domain; sloth: Charles J. Sharp, CC BY-SA 3.0; fox: Cp9asngf, CC BY-SA 4.0; sector-business_equipment: Sangitiana Fararano, CC BY-SA 2.0; sector-healthcare: User:Squidonius, myself, and User:Beliason (assumed)., CC BY-SA 4.0; sector-manufacturing: unknown, CC BY-SA 2.0; sector-shops: Wilfredor, CC BY-SA 4.0; sector-consumer_nondurables: Nielsoncaetanosalmeron, CC BY 4.0; sector-utilities: Lijovklm, CC BY-SA 4.0; sector-consumer_durables: Stilfehler, CC BY-SA 4.0; sector-chemicals: PEO ACWA, CC BY 2.0; sector-energy: Arne Hückelheim, CC BY-SA 3.0; sector-telecom: Wikideas1, CC0; sector-other: Downtowngal, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Updated Oct 9, 2026