Assay
Financial-condition grades for SEC filers
Company Report · as of Oct 9, 2026
|
| Expand Energy Corp.EXE · energy | |
|---|---|
| Grade |  Astrongest fifth of 148 graded peers; percentile 10.2, sampling error 3.6 points; lower is stronger |
| Rank | 16 of 148 |
| Profitability | Bpercentile 26.5 |
| Solvency | Bpercentile 24.4 |
| Growth and financing | Cpercentile 44.9 |
| Reliability | 0.94 AUCfailure model, filers with over $2.67B assets; 95% interval 0.88 to 0.97; 61 events, 2020 to 2025 |
| Peer failure rate | 0.52% a yearItem 1.03 bankruptcies, same asset band, 2012 to 2025 |
| Size band | over $2.67B assetstotal assets $28.3B[1] |
| Standard universe | insiderevenue above $1M and assets above $10M[1-2] |
| Warnings | none activenot computable: distress |
| Inputs computable | 10 of 14 |
| Graded from | filings received through Feb 18, 2026233 days before the rescan; every figure keyed to the SEC receipt date |
| Last close | $88.872026-10-08; market equity $20.6B; iex feed |
| Price used in grade | None |
| Share price, twelve months to the rescansplit-adjusted close; a lollipop at every rescan carries the letter held then; baseline ticks are SEC receipt dates of the inputs; ranges and dragging scroll the full history | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Percentile at every rescan on file, Jan 21, 2012 to Oct 9, 2026; stronger toward the top. Hover for the date. Open this report as it stood on | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Each date opens the report as it stood on that rescan. |
Business, in the company's words. Opening of Item 1 of the 10-K received Feb 18, 2026; the document on sec.gov.
Unless the context otherwise requires, references to “Expand Energy,” the “Company,” “us,” “we,” “our” and “ours” in this report are to Expand Energy Corporation together with its subsidiaries. Our principal executive offices are located at 6100 North Western Avenue, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 73118, and our main telephone number at that location is (405) 848-8000. Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S., based on net daily production, and is focused on responsibly developing an abundant supply of natural gas, oil and NGL to expand energy access for all.
The Fourteen Inputs [top]
Lower percentile is stronger. Source numbers open the SEC filing; a range that spans filings opens the sources table.
| Input | Percentile, 0 to 100 | Value | Source | Peer median | Percentile | Peers | Period end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profitability, sleeve percentile 26.5 | |||||||
| Gross profitability | not computable | 17.5% | |||||
| one or more required annual facts are missing | |||||||
| Return on invested capital | 8.6% | [3-11] | 6.0% | 26.7 | 91 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Accruals ratio | (9.8%) | [1,12-14] | (5.0%) | 26.3 | 271 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Gross margin stability, five years | not computable | 4.6 pts | |||||
| five annual gross margins are required; found 0 | |||||||
| Solvency, sleeve percentile 24.4 | |||||||
| Twelve-month failure probability | not computable | 0.06% | |||||
| latest liabilities, cash plus short-term investments, book equity, and shares are required | |||||||
| Altman Z double-prime | 3.16 | [1,3,7,15-18] | 1.48 | 15.9 | 152 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 0.81x | [3,6,8,19] | 3.63x | 13.8 | 117 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Interest coverage | not computable | 2.37x | |||||
| latest aligned inputs end 2023-12-31; latest annual assets end 2025-12-31 | |||||||
| Current ratio | 1.01x | [15-16] | 0.97x | 43.4 | 282 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Growth and financing, sleeve percentile 44.9 | |||||||
| Revenue growth, three-year compound | 1.1% | [2,20-22] | 0.7% | 49.8 | 222 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Free cash flow growth, three-year compound | (7.2%) | [13,23-29] | (11.8%) | 37.0 | 55 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Reinvestment rate | 45.5% | [3-5,15-16,19,23,30-31] | 59.0% | 54.9 | 72 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Asset growth, three years | 22.3% | [1,14,32-33] | 6.4% | 12.2 | 246 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Net share issuance, one year | 3.3% | [34-35] | 0.4% | 70.5 | 157 | 2026-02-11 | |
Gross profitability. Revenue less cost of goods sold, over total assets.
Accruals ratio. Net income less operating cash flow, over average assets; lower is stronger.
Gross margin stability, five years. Standard deviation of gross margin; lower is stronger.
Twelve-month failure probability. CHS model; lower is stronger.
Net debt to EBITDA. Lower is stronger.
Net share issuance, one year. Split-adjusted; lower is stronger.
Sleeves are equal-weighted; within a sleeve each computable input carries equal weight. Composite -0.399; sampling error 3.6 percentile points on 148 peers.
Among 148 Peers [top]
Composite score of every graded peer, smoothed. Vertical rules are the letter band edges at the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles. Small dots are the six largest peers by market equity.
| Rank | Company | Percentile | Letter | Warnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Patterson UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN) Patterson UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN) Astrongest fifth; percentile 6.8 Nasdaq · Drilling Oil & Gas Wells market equity $4.4B; last close $11.47 No active warnings; 8 of 14 inputs | 6.8 | A | |
| 12 | ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP) ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP) Astrongest fifth; percentile 7.5 NYSE · Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC market equity $1.1B; last close $9.04 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 7 of 14 inputs | 7.5 | A | fortress balance sheet |
| 13 | American States Water Co. (AWR) American States Water Co. (AWR) Astrongest fifth; percentile 8.2 NYSE · Water Supply market equity $3.2B; last close $81.92 No active warnings; 10 of 14 inputs | 8.2 | A | |
| 14 | Matador Resources Co. (MTDR) Matador Resources Co. (MTDR) Astrongest fifth; percentile 8.8 NYSE · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas market equity $6.7B; last close $54.48 No active warnings; 10 of 14 inputs | 8.8 | A | |
| 15 | Alliance Resource Partners L.P. (ARLP) Alliance Resource Partners L.P. (ARLP) Astrongest fifth; percentile 9.5 Nasdaq · Bituminous Coal & Lignite Surface Mining market equity $3.2B; last close $24.65 No active warnings; 7 of 14 inputs | 9.5 | A | |
| 16 | Expand Energy Corp. (EXE) Expand Energy Corp. (EXE) Astrongest fifth; percentile 10.2 Nasdaq · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas market equity $20.6B; last close $88.87 No active warnings; 10 of 14 inputs | 10.2 | A | |
| 17 | Northern OIL & GAS, Inc. (NOG) Northern OIL & GAS, Inc. (NOG) Astrongest fifth; percentile 10.9 NYSE · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas market equity $2.7B; last close $25.14 No active warnings; 9 of 14 inputs | 10.9 | A | |
| 18 | Ranger Energy Services, Inc. (RNGR) Ranger Energy Services, Inc. (RNGR) Astrongest fifth; percentile 11.6 NYSE · Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC last close $15.46 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 7 of 14 inputs | 11.6 | A | fortress balance sheet |
| 19 | California Resources Corp. (CRC) California Resources Corp. (CRC) Astrongest fifth; percentile 12.2 NYSE · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas market equity $4.7B; last close $53.05 No active warnings; 8 of 14 inputs | 12.2 | A | |
| 20 | Western Midstream Partners, L.P. (WES) Western Midstream Partners, L.P. (WES) Astrongest fifth; percentile 12.9 NYSE · Natural Gas Transmission market equity $18.0B; last close $45.86 No active warnings; 8 of 14 inputs | 12.9 | A | |
| 21 | Gulfport Energy Corp. (GPOR) Gulfport Energy Corp. (GPOR) Astrongest fifth; percentile 13.6 NYSE · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas market equity $2.9B; last close $164.71 No active warnings; 10 of 14 inputs | 13.6 | A |
| Peer policy | Letter | Percentile | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| all graded filers, equal sleeves | C | 41.4 | 2204 |
| sector peers, equal sleeves (the grade) | A | 10.2 | 148 |
| same exchange, equal sleeves | C | 46.2 | 1219 |
| sector peers, equal inputs | A | 11.6 | 148 |
Each letter is one fifth of the 148 graded peers, about 29 companies. A boundary letter (A/B, B/C, C/D, D/E) marks a percentile within one sampling error of a band edge.
What the Price Implies [top]
Market measures at the 2026-10-08 close. None enters the grade. Percentile among graded peers with the same measure.
| Measure | Value | Peer median | Percentile | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twelve-month price change, skipping the latest month | (5.5%) | 15.5% | 18 | hotter than 18 of 100 peers |
| Distance from 52-week high | (27.7%) | (15.4%) | 20 | closer to its high than 20 of 100 peers |
| EBIT to enterprise value | 9.9% | 4.6% | 88 | pricier than 12 of 100 peers |
| Free cash flow yield | 8.9% | 1.3% | 87 | pricier than 13 of 100 peers |
| Book value to price | 0.94 | 0.53 | 85 | pricier than 15 of 100 peers |
| Sales to price | 0.59 | 0.45 | 58 | pricier than 42 of 100 peers |
| Composite equity issuance, five years | 62.2% | (7.2%) | 91 | more equity-funded than 91 of 100 peers |
| Relative strength against the sector, log excess return | (0.43) | 0.04 | 7 | ahead of 7 of 100 peers |
Inputs: market equity $20.6B; EBIT $2.5B; free cash flow $1.8B; book equity $19.4B; sales $12.1B; debt $5.0B; cash $663.0M[36].
Diagnostics [top]
Diagnostics do not feed the grade.
| Piotroski F-score: None of 9, period end 2025-12-31 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Return on assets above zero | 6.5% | ✓ pass[12,14] |
| Operating cash flow above zero | $4.6B | ✓ pass[13] |
| Return on assets improved | 11.5 pts | ✓ pass[12,14,32,37] |
| Operating cash flow exceeds net income | $2.8B | ✓ pass[12-13] |
| Long-term leverage fell | (7.2 pts) | ✓ pass[1,14,32,38-39] |
| Current ratio improved | 36.6 pts | ✓ pass[15-16,30-31] |
| No new shares issued | 3.3% | ✗ fail[34-35] |
| Gross margin improved | n/a | |
| Asset turnover improved | 14.0 pts | ✓ pass[2,14,20,32] |
| Cash, filings, liquidity | |
|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents | $663.0M[40] |
| Operating cash flow, four quarters | $5.7B[13,40-44] |
| Months of runway | not finite |
| trailing operating cash flow is nonnegative, so runway is not finite | |
| Late filings, two years | 0 |
| NT 10-K or NT 10-Q | |
| Days since last periodic filing | 73 |
| 10-Q received Jul 28, 2026 | |
| Median daily dollar volume | $267.1M |
| 63 sessions | |
| Days since newest grade input | 233 |
Downloads [top]
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Sources [top]
Every citation on this page. Filing opens the SEC index page for that submission; viewer opens the SEC interactive data for the same filing; series opens the SEC XBRL API record for that tag and company.
| # | Concept | XBRL tag | Value | Period end | Received | Form | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $28.3B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 2 | revenue | us-gaap:Revenues | $12.1B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 3 | operating income | us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss | $2.5B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 4 | pretax income | us-gaap:IncomeLossFromContinuingOperationsBeforeIncomeTaxesExtraordinaryItemsNoncontrollingInterest | $2.3B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 5 | income tax | us-gaap:IncomeTaxExpenseBenefit | $463.0M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 6 | total debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebt | $5.0B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 7 | book equity | us-gaap:StockholdersEquity | $18.6B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 8 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $616.0M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 9 | total debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebt | $5.7B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 10 | book equity | us-gaap:StockholdersEquity | $17.6B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 11 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $317.0M | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 12 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | $1.8B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 13 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $4.6B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 14 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $27.9B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 15 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $2.9B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 16 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $2.9B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 17 | retained earnings | us-gaap:RetainedEarningsAccumulatedDeficit | $4.8B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 18 | liabilities | us-gaap:Liabilities | $9.7B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 19 | depreciation amortization | us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization | $3.0B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 20 | revenue | us-gaap:Revenues | $4.2B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 21 | revenue | us-gaap:Revenues | $8.7B | 2023-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 22 | revenue | us-gaap:Revenues | $11.7B | 2022-12-31 | 2025-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 23 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment | $2.7B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 24 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $1.6B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 25 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment | $1.6B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 26 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $2.4B | 2023-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 27 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment | $1.8B | 2023-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 28 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $4.1B | 2022-12-31 | 2025-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 29 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment | $1.8B | 2022-12-31 | 2025-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 30 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $2.0B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 31 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $3.1B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 32 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $14.4B | 2023-12-31 | 2025-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 33 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $15.5B | 2022-12-31 | 2024-02-21 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 34 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 240,398,260 | 2026-02-11 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 35 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 232,699,939 | 2025-02-19 | 2025-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 36 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 231,503,789 | 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-28 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 37 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | -$714.0M | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 38 | long term debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent | $5.0B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 39 | long term debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent | $5.3B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 40 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $663.0M | 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-28 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 41 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $3.5B | 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-28 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 42 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $2.4B | 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-28 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 43 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $3.6B | 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 44 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $2.4B | 2025-06-30 | 2026-07-28 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
Limitations [top]
Grade boundary. Percentile 10.2 is 9.8 points from the nearest band edge; sampling error is 3.6 points.
Peer group. Sector assignment from four-digit SIC codes, hand-tuned and published. The grade under three alternative peer policies is tabled above.
Size. Within a sector the letter tracks size. Among graded filers in the smallest asset band, 72% grade E and 0% grade A; in the largest, 13% grade E and 21% grade A. Universe as of Oct 9, 2026.
Failure model. filings 2012-01-01 to 2019-12-31 fit, filings 2020-01-01 to 2025-12-31 test; status post hoc pending confirmation. pre-registered on 2026 filings once their 12-month outcome windows close; supported if the paired per-quintile gain over the pooled model has a lower bound above 0.05.
Input validity. Revenue or total assets at or below $100,000 sets the degenerate-inputs flag. An input whose denominator is at or below $100,000 is left not computable rather than ranked.
Returns. No input on this page has a post-2015 confidence interval on returns that excludes zero. The grade ranks reported financial condition and is not a return forecast.
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