Assay
Financial-condition grades for SEC filers
Company Report · as of Oct 9, 2026
|
| First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.FWRG · shops | |
|---|---|
| Grade |  Cmiddle fifth of 258 graded peers; percentile 46.3, sampling error 2.9 points; lower is stronger |
| Rank | 120 of 258 |
| Profitability | B/Cpercentile 40.6 |
| Solvency | Dpercentile 74.9 |
| Growth and financing | Bpercentile 28.6 |
| Reliability | 0.91 AUCfailure model, filers with $591M to $2.67B assets; 95% interval 0.88 to 0.94; 160 events, 2020 to 2025 |
| Peer failure rate | 1.01% a yearItem 1.03 bankruptcies, same asset band, 2012 to 2025 |
| Size band | $591M to $2.67B assetstotal assets $1.7B[1] |
| Standard universe | insiderevenue above $1M and assets above $10M[1-2] |
| Warnings | none activenot computable: distress |
| Inputs computable | 7 of 14 |
| Graded from | filings received through Feb 24, 2026227 days before the rescan; every figure keyed to the SEC receipt date |
| Last close | $10.962026-10-08; market equity $676.4M; iex feed |
| Price used in grade | None |
| Share price, twelve months to the rescansplit-adjusted close; a lollipop at every rescan carries the letter held then; baseline ticks are SEC receipt dates of the inputs; ranges and dragging scroll the full history | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Percentile at every rescan on file, Jan 21, 2012 to Oct 9, 2026; stronger toward the top. Hover for the date. Open this report as it stood on | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Each date opens the report as it stood on that rescan. |
Business, in the company's words. Opening of Item 1 of the 10-K received Feb 24, 2026; the document on sec.gov.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is a Delaware holding company. Unless the context otherwise requires, “we,” “us,” “our,” “First Watch,” the “Company,” “Management” and other similar references refer to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. and, unless otherwise stated, all of its subsidiaries. Since opening our doors in 1983, we have been a pioneer in Daytime Dining, serving made-to-order breakfast, brunch and lunch using the freshest of ingredients. We have built our brand on our commitment to operational excellence, our culinary mission centered around a fresh, continuously evolving menu, and our “You First” culture.
The Fourteen Inputs [top]
Lower percentile is stronger. Source numbers open the SEC filing; a range that spans filings opens the sources table.
| Input | Percentile, 0 to 100 | Value | Source | Peer median | Percentile | Peers | Period end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profitability, sleeve percentile 40.6 | |||||||
| Gross profitability | not computable | 42.6% | |||||
| one or more required annual facts are missing | |||||||
| Return on invested capital | not computable | 10.9% | |||||
| pretax income must exceed the validity floor and imply a 0%-100% tax rate | |||||||
| Accruals ratio | (6.5%) | [1,3-5] | (4.9%) | 40.6 | 287 | 2025-12-28 | |
| Gross margin stability, five years | not computable | 1.2 pts | |||||
| five annual gross margins are required; found 0 | |||||||
| Solvency, sleeve percentile 74.9 | |||||||
| Twelve-month failure probability | not computable | 0.04% | |||||
| latest liabilities, cash plus short-term investments, book equity, and shares are required | |||||||
| Altman Z double-prime | 0.19 | [1,6-11] | 1.92 | 66.7 | 208 | 2025-12-28 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 2.64x | [9,12-14] | 1.84x | 60.6 | 100 | 2025-12-28 | |
| Interest coverage | not computable | 2.26x | |||||
| latest aligned inputs end 2023-12-31; latest annual assets end 2025-12-28 | |||||||
| Current ratio | 0.29x | [6-7] | 1.37x | 97.3 | 295 | 2025-12-28 | |
| Growth and financing, sleeve percentile 28.6 | |||||||
| Revenue growth, three-year compound | 18.7% | [2,15-17] | 1.5% | 4.9 | 269 | 2025-12-28 | |
| Free cash flow growth, three-year compound | not computable | 5.6% | |||||
| current FCF must be positive and base FCF must exceed $100,000 | |||||||
| Reinvestment rate | not computable | 7.3% | |||||
| pretax income must exceed the validity floor and imply a 0%-100% tax rate | |||||||
| Asset growth, three years | 16.4% | [1,5,18-19] | 3.4% | 8.1 | 272 | 2025-12-28 | |
| Net share issuance, one year | 0.7% | [20-21] | (0.6%) | 72.9 | 211 | 2026-02-20 | |
Gross profitability. Revenue less cost of goods sold, over total assets.
Accruals ratio. Net income less operating cash flow, over average assets; lower is stronger.
Gross margin stability, five years. Standard deviation of gross margin; lower is stronger.
Twelve-month failure probability. CHS model; lower is stronger.
Net debt to EBITDA. Lower is stronger.
Net share issuance, one year. Split-adjusted; lower is stronger.
Sleeves are equal-weighted; within a sleeve each computable input carries equal weight. Composite -0.046; sampling error 2.9 percentile points on 258 peers.
Among 258 Peers [top]
Composite score of every graded peer, smoothed. Vertical rules are the letter band edges at the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles. Small dots are the six largest peers by market equity.
| Rank | Company | Percentile | Letter | Warnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | LKQ Corp. (LKQ) LKQ Corp. (LKQ) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 44.4 Nasdaq · Wholesale-Motor Vehicles & Motor Vehicle Parts & Supplies market equity $5.6B; last close $22.02 No active warnings; 9 of 14 inputs | 44.4 | C | |
| 116 | Cannae Holdings, Inc. (CNNE) Cannae Holdings, Inc. (CNNE) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 44.7 NYSE · Retail-Eating & Drinking Places market equity $689.7M; last close $15.90 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 7 of 14 inputs | 44.7 | C | fortress balance sheet |
| 117 | Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 45.1 NYSE · Wholesale-Drugs, Proprietaries & Druggists' Sundries market equity $1.3B; last close $12.83 No active warnings; 13 of 14 inputs | 45.1 | C | |
| 118 | Sonic Automotive Inc. (SAH) Sonic Automotive Inc. (SAH) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 45.5 NYSE · Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations last close $61.40 No active warnings; 7 of 14 inputs | 45.5 | C | |
| 119 | Honest Company, Inc. (HNST) Honest Company, Inc. (HNST) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 45.9 Nasdaq · Retail-Catalog & Mail-Order Houses market equity $533.2M; last close $4.97 No active warnings; 8 of 14 inputs | 45.9 | C | |
| 120 | First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 46.3 Nasdaq · Retail-Eating Places market equity $676.4M; last close $10.96 No active warnings; 7 of 14 inputs | 46.3 | C | |
| 121 | Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 46.7 Nasdaq · Retail-Eating & Drinking Places market equity $106.3B; last close $93.21 No active warnings; 9 of 14 inputs | 46.7 | C | |
| 122 | Universal Corp. (UVV) Universal Corp. (UVV) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 47.1 NYSE · Wholesale-Farm Product Raw Materials market equity $1.1B; last close $43.08 Warnings: late filer; 10 of 14 inputs | 47.1 | C | late filer |
| 123 | Scansource, Inc. (SCSC) Scansource, Inc. (SCSC) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 47.5 Nasdaq · Wholesale-Computers & Peripheral Equipment & Software market equity $1.2B; last close $59.20 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 9 of 14 inputs | 47.5 | C | fortress balance sheet |
| 124 | Lowes Companies Inc. (LOW) Lowes Companies Inc. (LOW) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 47.9 NYSE · Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers market equity $106.0B; last close $188.80 No active warnings; 13 of 14 inputs | 47.9 | C | |
| 125 | Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 48.2 NYSE · Retail-Eating Places market equity $14.3B; last close $41.81 No active warnings; 9 of 14 inputs | 48.2 | C |
| Peer policy | Letter | Percentile | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| all graded filers, equal sleeves | C | 50.3 | 2204 |
| sector peers, equal sleeves (the grade) | C | 46.3 | 258 |
| same exchange, equal sleeves | C | 55.2 | 1219 |
| sector peers, equal inputs | C | 54.9 | 258 |
Each letter is one fifth of the 258 graded peers, about 51 companies. A boundary letter (A/B, B/C, C/D, D/E) marks a percentile within one sampling error of a band edge.
What the Price Implies [top]
Market measures at the 2026-10-08 close. None enters the grade. Percentile among graded peers with the same measure.
| Measure | Value | Peer median | Percentile | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twelve-month price change, skipping the latest month | (18.9%) | (0.1%) | 30 | hotter than 30 of 100 peers |
| Distance from 52-week high | (41.3%) | (24.1%) | 26 | closer to its high than 26 of 100 peers |
| EBIT to enterprise value | 2.9% | 5.3% | 29 | pricier than 71 of 100 peers |
| Free cash flow yield | (4.6%) | 4.2% | 14 | pricier than 86 of 100 peers |
| Book value to price | 0.94 | 0.36 | 80 | pricier than 20 of 100 peers |
| Sales to price | 1.81 | 1.75 | 50 | pricier than 50 of 100 peers |
| Composite equity issuance, five years | not computable | (16.7%) | a share count from five years earlier is required | |
| Relative strength against the sector, log excess return | (0.19) | 0.02 | 30 | ahead of 30 of 100 peers |
Inputs: market equity $676.4M; EBIT $27.5M; free cash flow -$31.0M; book equity $634.2M; sales $1.2B; debt $277.7M; cash $20.5M[22].
Diagnostics [top]
Diagnostics do not feed the grade.
| Piotroski F-score: None of 9, period end 2025-12-28 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Return on assets above zero | 1.3% | ✓ pass[3,5] |
| Operating cash flow above zero | $125.9M | ✓ pass[4] |
| Return on assets improved | (0.2 pts) | ✗ fail[3,5,18,23] |
| Operating cash flow exceeds net income | $106.5M | ✓ pass[3-4] |
| Long-term leverage fell | 2.9 pts | ✗ fail[1,5,12,18,24] |
| Current ratio improved | (11.1 pts) | ✗ fail[6-7,25-26] |
| No new shares issued | 0.7% | ✗ fail[20-21] |
| Gross margin improved | n/a | |
| Asset turnover improved | 0.5 pts | ✓ pass[2,5,15,18] |
| Cash, filings, liquidity | |
|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents | $20.5M[27] |
| Operating cash flow, four quarters | $128.2M[4,27-31] |
| Months of runway | not finite |
| trailing operating cash flow is nonnegative, so runway is not finite | |
| Late filings, two years | 0 |
| NT 10-K or NT 10-Q | |
| Days since last periodic filing | 66 |
| 10-Q received Aug 4, 2026 | |
| Median daily dollar volume | $12.4M |
| 63 sessions | |
| Days since newest grade input | 227 |
Downloads [top]
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Sources [top]
Every citation on this page. Filing opens the SEC index page for that submission; viewer opens the SEC interactive data for the same filing; series opens the SEC XBRL API record for that tag and company.
| # | Concept | XBRL tag | Value | Period end | Received | Form | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $1.7B | 2025-12-28 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 2 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $1.2B | 2025-12-28 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 3 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | $19.4M | 2025-12-28 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 4 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $125.9M | 2025-12-28 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 5 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $1.5B | 2024-12-29 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 6 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $49.1M | 2025-12-28 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 7 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $167.5M | 2025-12-28 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 8 | retained earnings | us-gaap:RetainedEarningsAccumulatedDeficit | -$34.4M | 2025-12-28 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 9 | operating income | us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss | $27.5M | 2025-12-28 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 10 | book equity | us-gaap:StockholdersEquity | $626.3M | 2025-12-28 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 11 | liabilities | us-gaap:Liabilities | $1.1B | 2025-12-28 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 12 | total debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations | $269.1M | 2025-12-28 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 13 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $21.2M | 2025-12-28 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 14 | depreciation amortization | us-gaap:Depreciation | $66.5M | 2025-12-28 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 15 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $1.0B | 2024-12-29 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 16 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $891.6M | 2023-12-31 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 17 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $730.2M | 2022-12-25 | 2025-03-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 18 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $1.3B | 2023-12-31 | 2025-03-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 19 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $1.1B | 2022-12-25 | 2024-03-05 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 20 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 61,138,143 | 2026-02-20 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 21 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 60,700,090 | 2025-03-07 | 2025-03-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 22 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 61,712,435 | 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-04 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 23 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | $18.9M | 2024-12-29 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 24 | long term debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations | $189.0M | 2024-12-29 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 25 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $55.9M | 2024-12-29 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 26 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $138.5M | 2024-12-29 | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 27 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $20.5M | 2026-06-28 | 2026-08-04 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 28 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $61.9M | 2026-06-28 | 2026-08-04 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 29 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $34.5M | 2026-03-29 | 2026-05-05 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 30 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $107.5M | 2025-09-28 | 2025-11-04 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 31 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $59.6M | 2025-06-29 | 2026-08-04 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
Limitations [top]
Grade boundary. Percentile 46.3 is 6.3 points from the nearest band edge; sampling error is 2.9 points.
Peer group. Sector assignment from four-digit SIC codes, hand-tuned and published. The grade under three alternative peer policies is tabled above.
Size. Within a sector the letter tracks size. Among graded filers in the smallest asset band, 72% grade E and 0% grade A; in the largest, 13% grade E and 21% grade A. Universe as of Oct 9, 2026.
Failure model. filings 2012-01-01 to 2019-12-31 fit, filings 2020-01-01 to 2025-12-31 test; status post hoc pending confirmation. pre-registered on 2026 filings once their 12-month outcome windows close; supported if the paired per-quintile gain over the pooled model has a lower bound above 0.05.
Input validity. Revenue or total assets at or below $100,000 sets the degenerate-inputs flag. An input whose denominator is at or below $100,000 is left not computable rather than ranked.
Returns. No input on this page has a post-2015 confidence interval on returns that excludes zero. The grade ranks reported financial condition and is not a return forecast.
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