Assay
Financial-condition grades for SEC filers
Company Report · as of Oct 9, 2026
|
| Blue Bird Corp.BLBD · manufacturing | |
|---|---|
| Grade |  Astrongest fifth of 255 graded peers; percentile 5.5, sampling error 3.0 points; lower is stronger |
| Rank | 15 of 255 |
| Profitability | B/Cpercentile 39.7 |
| Solvency | B/Cpercentile 40.5 |
| Growth and financing | A/Bpercentile 17.4 |
| Reliability | 0.91 AUCfailure model, filers with $591M to $2.67B assets; 95% interval 0.88 to 0.94; 160 events, 2020 to 2025 |
| Peer failure rate | 1.01% a yearItem 1.03 bankruptcies, same asset band, 2012 to 2025 |
| Size band | $591M to $2.67B assetstotal assets $625.3M[1] |
| Standard universe | insiderevenue above $1M and assets above $10M[1-2] |
| Warnings | none activenot computable: distress, fortress balance sheet |
| Inputs computable | 9 of 14 |
| Graded from | filings received through Nov 24, 2025319 days before the rescan; every figure keyed to the SEC receipt date |
| Last close | $56.272026-10-08; market equity $1.8B; iex feed |
| Price used in grade | None |
| Share price, twelve months to the rescansplit-adjusted close; a lollipop at every rescan carries the letter held then; baseline ticks are SEC receipt dates of the inputs; ranges and dragging scroll the full history | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Percentile at every rescan on file, Jan 21, 2012 to Oct 9, 2026; stronger toward the top. Hover for the date. Open this report as it stood on | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Each date opens the report as it stood on that rescan. |
Business, in the company's words. Opening of Item 1 of the 10-K received Nov 24, 2025; the document on sec.gov.
The Company (formerly Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp.) was incorporated in Delaware on September 24, 2013 as a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. On February 24, 2015, the Company consummated a business combination (the “Business Combination”), pursuant to which the Company acquired all of the outstanding capital stock of School Bus Holdings Inc., a Delaware corporation (“School Bus Holdings” or “SBH”) from The Traxis Group, B.V. (the “Seller”). The total purchase price was paid in a combination of cash in the amount of $100.0 million and 12,000,000 shares of the Company’s common stock, $0.0001 par value (the “Common Stock”), valued at $120.0 million.
The Fourteen Inputs [top]
Lower percentile is stronger. Source numbers open the SEC filing; a range that spans filings opens the sources table.
| Input | Percentile, 0 to 100 | Value | Source | Peer median | Percentile | Peers | Period end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profitability, sleeve percentile 39.7 | |||||||
| Gross profitability | 48.5% | [1,3] | 21.9% | 7.3 | 275 | 2025-09-27 | |
| Return on invested capital | not computable | 9.7% | |||||
| one or more required annual facts are missing | |||||||
| Accruals ratio | (8.4%) | [1,4-6] | (3.6%) | 24.4 | 308 | 2025-09-27 | |
| Gross margin stability, five years | 5.8 pts | [2-3,7-14] | 2.1 pts | 87.3 | 229 | 2025-09-27 | |
| Solvency, sleeve percentile 40.5 | |||||||
| Twelve-month failure probability | not computable | 0.04% | |||||
| liabilities and a nearby cover-page share count are required at 2026-06-27 | |||||||
| Altman Z double-prime | not computable | 3.66 | |||||
| required facts have no common fiscal period end | |||||||
| Net debt to EBITDA | not computable | 1.78x | |||||
| one or more required annual facts are missing | |||||||
| Interest coverage | 23.21x | [15-16] | 5.09x | 15.9 | 64 | 2025-09-27 | |
| Current ratio | 1.74x | [17-18] | 2.25x | 65.1 | 325 | 2025-09-27 | |
| Growth and financing, sleeve percentile 17.4 | |||||||
| Revenue growth, three-year compound | 22.7% | [2,8,10,12] | 2.1% | 6.7 | 269 | 2025-09-27 | |
| Free cash flow growth, three-year compound | not computable | 13.9% | |||||
| current FCF must be positive and base FCF must exceed $100,000 | |||||||
| Reinvestment rate | 76.5% | [15,17-24] | 26.4% | 23.9 | 139 | 2025-09-27 | |
| Asset growth, three years | 19.5% | [1,6,25-26] | 4.4% | 11.9 | 279 | 2025-09-27 | |
| Net share issuance, one year | (1.7%) | [27-28] | 0.01% | 27.3 | 243 | 2025-11-19 | |
Gross profitability. Revenue less cost of goods sold, over total assets.
Accruals ratio. Net income less operating cash flow, over average assets; lower is stronger.
Gross margin stability, five years. Standard deviation of gross margin; lower is stronger.
Twelve-month failure probability. CHS model; lower is stronger.
Net debt to EBITDA. Lower is stronger.
Net share issuance, one year. Split-adjusted; lower is stronger.
Sleeves are equal-weighted; within a sleeve each computable input carries equal weight. Composite -0.419; sampling error 3.0 percentile points on 255 peers.
Among 255 Peers [top]
Composite score of every graded peer, smoothed. Vertical rules are the letter band edges at the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles. Small dots are the six largest peers by market equity.
| Rank | Company | Percentile | Letter | Warnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Alamo Group Inc. (ALG) Alamo Group Inc. (ALG) Astrongest fifth; percentile 3.5 NYSE · Farm Machinery & Equipment market equity $1.9B; last close $155.18 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 11 of 14 inputs | 3.5 | A | fortress balance sheet |
| 11 | Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD) Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD) Astrongest fifth; percentile 3.9 NYSE · Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware market equity $7.0B; last close $171.93 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 13 of 14 inputs | 3.9 | A | fortress balance sheet |
| 12 | ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) Astrongest fifth; percentile 4.3 Nasdaq · Special Industry Machinery, NEC last close $70.74 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 10 of 14 inputs | 4.3 | A | fortress balance sheet |
| 13 | Graco Inc. (GGG) Graco Inc. (GGG) Astrongest fifth; percentile 4.7 NYSE · Pumps & Pumping Equipment market equity $12.7B; last close $78.37 No active warnings; 9 of 14 inputs | 4.7 | A | |
| 14 | Innovex International, Inc. (INVX) Innovex International, Inc. (INVX) Astrongest fifth; percentile 5.1 NYSE · Oil & Gas Field Machinery & Equipment market equity $1.9B; last close $27.56 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 9 of 14 inputs | 5.1 | A | fortress balance sheet |
| 15 | Blue Bird Corp. (BLBD) Blue Bird Corp. (BLBD) Astrongest fifth; percentile 5.5 Nasdaq · Truck & Bus Bodies market equity $1.8B; last close $56.27 No active warnings; 9 of 14 inputs | 5.5 | A | |
| 16 | Heico Corp. (HEI) Heico Corp. (HEI) Astrongest fifth; percentile 6.1 NYSE · Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts last close $295.88 No active warnings; 9 of 14 inputs | 6.1 | A | |
| 17 | Heico Corp. (HEI-A) Heico Corp. (HEI-A) Astrongest fifth; percentile 6.1 NYSE · Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts last close $221.06 No active warnings; 9 of 14 inputs | 6.1 | A | |
| 18 | Lindsay Corp. (LNN) Lindsay Corp. (LNN) Astrongest fifth; percentile 6.7 NYSE · Farm Machinery & Equipment market equity $1.2B; last close $114.63 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 11 of 14 inputs | 6.7 | A | fortress balance sheet |
| 19 | BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) Astrongest fifth; percentile 7.1 NYSE · Engines & Turbines market equity $13.0B; last close $142.23 No active warnings; 10 of 14 inputs | 7.1 | A | |
| 20 | Energy Recovery, Inc. (ERII) Energy Recovery, Inc. (ERII) Astrongest fifth; percentile 7.5 Nasdaq · Special Industry Machinery, NEC market equity $349.1M; last close $6.85 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 10 of 14 inputs | 7.5 | A | fortress balance sheet |
| Peer policy | Letter | Percentile | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| all graded filers, equal sleeves | A | 5.8 | 2204 |
| sector peers, equal sleeves (the grade) | A | 5.5 | 255 |
| same exchange, equal sleeves | A | 8.9 | 1219 |
| sector peers, equal inputs | A | 3.5 | 255 |
Each letter is one fifth of the 255 graded peers, about 51 companies. A boundary letter (A/B, B/C, C/D, D/E) marks a percentile within one sampling error of a band edge.
What the Price Implies [top]
Market measures at the 2026-10-08 close. None enters the grade. Percentile among graded peers with the same measure.
| Measure | Value | Peer median | Percentile | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twelve-month price change, skipping the latest month | 1.0% | 13.7% | 36 | hotter than 36 of 100 peers |
| Distance from 52-week high | (31.1%) | (24.3%) | 36 | closer to its high than 36 of 100 peers |
| EBIT to enterprise value | 9.1% | 4.1% | 88 | pricier than 12 of 100 peers |
| Free cash flow yield | 8.6% | 3.4% | 86 | pricier than 14 of 100 peers |
| Book value to price | 0.37 | 0.34 | 51 | pricier than 49 of 100 peers |
| Sales to price | 0.83 | 0.54 | 65 | pricier than 35 of 100 peers |
| Composite equity issuance, five years | 15.8% | (9.5%) | 79 | more equity-funded than 79 of 100 peers |
| Relative strength against the sector, log excess return | (0.12) | (0.00) | 36 | ahead of 36 of 100 peers |
Inputs: market equity $1.8B; EBIT $167.2M; free cash flow $153.3M; book equity $654.9M; sales $1.5B; debt $182.7M; cash $116.8M[29].
Diagnostics [top]
Diagnostics do not feed the grade.
| Piotroski F-score: 7 of 9, period end 2025-09-27 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Return on assets above zero | 24.3% | ✓ pass[4,6] |
| Operating cash flow above zero | $176.2M | ✓ pass[5] |
| Return on assets improved | (0.9 pts) | ✗ fail[4,6,25,30] |
| Operating cash flow exceeds net income | $48.5M | ✓ pass[4-5] |
| Long-term leverage fell | (4.3 pts) | ✓ pass[1,6,25,31-32] |
| Current ratio improved | 36.8 pts | ✓ pass[17-18,23-24] |
| No new shares issued | (1.7%) | ✓ pass[27-28] |
| Gross margin improved | 1.5 pts | ✓ pass[2-3,7-8] |
| Asset turnover improved | (40.5 pts) | ✗ fail[2,6,8,25] |
| Cash, filings, liquidity | |
|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents | $116.8M[33] |
| Operating cash flow, four quarters | $180.5M[5,33-37] |
| Months of runway | not finite |
| trailing operating cash flow is nonnegative, so runway is not finite | |
| Late filings, two years | 0 |
| NT 10-K or NT 10-Q | |
| Days since last periodic filing | 65 |
| 10-Q received Aug 5, 2026 | |
| Median daily dollar volume | $30.1M |
| 63 sessions | |
| Days since newest grade input | 319 |
Downloads [top]
|
Sources [top]
Every citation on this page. Filing opens the SEC index page for that submission; viewer opens the SEC interactive data for the same filing; series opens the SEC XBRL API record for that tag and company.
| # | Concept | XBRL tag | Value | Period end | Received | Form | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $625.3M | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 2 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $1.5B | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 3 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $303.5M | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 4 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | $127.7M | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 5 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $176.2M | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 6 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $524.9M | 2024-09-28 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 7 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $256.2M | 2024-09-28 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 8 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $1.3B | 2024-09-28 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 9 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $138.8M | 2023-09-30 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 10 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $1.1B | 2023-09-30 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 11 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $36.5M | 2022-10-01 | 2023-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 12 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $800.6M | 2022-10-01 | 2023-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 13 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $72.1M | 2021-10-02 | 2023-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 14 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $684.0M | 2021-10-02 | 2023-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 15 | operating income | us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss | $167.2M | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 16 | interest expense | us-gaap:InterestExpense | $7.2M | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 17 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $411.6M | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 18 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $236.8M | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 19 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets | $22.9M | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 20 | depreciation amortization | us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization | $15.6M | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 21 | pretax income | us-gaap:IncomeLossFromContinuingOperationsBeforeIncomeTaxesMinorityInterestAndIncomeLossFromEquityMethodInvestments | $169.6M | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 22 | income tax | us-gaap:IncomeTaxExpenseBenefit | $43.9M | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 23 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $323.4M | 2024-09-28 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 24 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $236.0M | 2024-09-28 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 25 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $417.8M | 2023-09-30 | 2024-11-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 26 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $366.1M | 2022-10-01 | 2023-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 27 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 31,714,959 | 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 28 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 32,268,022 | 2024-11-20 | 2024-11-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 29 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 31,676,039 | 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-05 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 30 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | $105.5M | 2024-09-28 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 31 | long term debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent | $85.3M | 2025-09-27 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 32 | long term debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent | $90.0M | 2024-09-28 | 2025-11-24 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 33 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $116.8M | 2026-06-27 | 2026-08-05 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 34 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $115.4M | 2026-06-27 | 2026-08-05 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 35 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $84.3M | 2026-03-28 | 2026-05-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 36 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $36.6M | 2025-12-27 | 2026-02-04 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 37 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $111.1M | 2025-06-28 | 2026-08-05 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
Limitations [top]
Grade boundary. Percentile 5.5 is 14.5 points from the nearest band edge; sampling error is 3.0 points.
Peer group. Sector assignment from four-digit SIC codes, hand-tuned and published. The grade under three alternative peer policies is tabled above.
Size. Within a sector the letter tracks size. Among graded filers in the smallest asset band, 72% grade E and 0% grade A; in the largest, 13% grade E and 21% grade A. Universe as of Oct 9, 2026.
Failure model. filings 2012-01-01 to 2019-12-31 fit, filings 2020-01-01 to 2025-12-31 test; status post hoc pending confirmation. pre-registered on 2026 filings once their 12-month outcome windows close; supported if the paired per-quintile gain over the pooled model has a lower bound above 0.05.
Input validity. Revenue or total assets at or below $100,000 sets the degenerate-inputs flag. An input whose denominator is at or below $100,000 is left not computable rather than ranked.
Returns. No input on this page has a post-2015 confidence interval on returns that excludes zero. The grade ranks reported financial condition and is not a return forecast.
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