Assay
Financial-condition grades for SEC filers
Company Report · as of Oct 9, 2026
|
| Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.NGVC · shops | |
|---|---|
| Grade |  Bsecond fifth of 258 graded peers; percentile 31.1, sampling error 2.9 points; lower is stronger |
| Rank | 81 of 258 |
| Profitability | Cpercentile 47.7 |
| Solvency | B/Cpercentile 42.1 |
| Growth and financing | B/Cpercentile 39.2 |
| Reliability | 0.91 AUCfailure model, filers with $591M to $2.67B assets; 95% interval 0.88 to 0.94; 160 events, 2020 to 2025 |
| Peer failure rate | 1.01% a yearItem 1.03 bankruptcies, same asset band, 2012 to 2025 |
| Size band | $591M to $2.67B assetstotal assets $670.5M[1] |
| Standard universe | insiderevenue above $1M and assets above $10M[1-2] |
| Warnings | none activenot computable: distress, fortress balance sheet |
| Inputs computable | 11 of 14 |
| Graded from | filings received through Dec 11, 2025302 days before the rescan; every figure keyed to the SEC receipt date |
| Last close | $30.202026-10-08; market equity $696.0M; iex feed |
| Price used in grade | None |
| Share price, twelve months to the rescansplit-adjusted close; a lollipop at every rescan carries the letter held then; baseline ticks are SEC receipt dates of the inputs; ranges and dragging scroll the full history | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Percentile at every rescan on file, Jan 21, 2012 to Oct 9, 2026; stronger toward the top. Hover for the date. Open this report as it stood on | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Each date opens the report as it stood on that rescan. |
Business, in the company's words. Opening of Item 1 of the 10-K received Dec 11, 2025; the document on sec.gov.
Natural Grocers® is an expanding specialty retailer of natural and organic groceries and dietary supplements. We focus on providing high-quality products at affordable prices, exceptional customer service, nutrition education and community outreach.
The Fourteen Inputs [top]
Lower percentile is stronger. Source numbers open the SEC filing; a range that spans filings opens the sources table.
| Input | Percentile, 0 to 100 | Value | Source | Peer median | Percentile | Peers | Period end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profitability, sleeve percentile 47.7 | |||||||
| Gross profitability | 59.3% | [1,3] | 42.6% | 26.1 | 242 | 2025-09-30 | |
| Return on invested capital | not computable | 10.9% | |||||
| one or more required annual facts are missing | |||||||
| Accruals ratio | (1.3%) | [1,4-6] | (4.9%) | 82.9 | 287 | 2025-09-30 | |
| Gross margin stability, five years | 0.8 pts | [2-3,7-14] | 1.2 pts | 33.9 | 219 | 2025-09-30 | |
| Solvency, sleeve percentile 42.1 | |||||||
| Twelve-month failure probability | not computable | 0.04% | |||||
| latest liabilities, cash plus short-term investments, book equity, and shares are required | |||||||
| Altman Z double-prime | 1.93 | [1,15-20] | 1.92 | 47.8 | 208 | 2025-09-30 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | not computable | 1.84x | |||||
| one or more required annual facts are missing | |||||||
| Interest coverage | 20.24x | [18,21] | 2.26x | 9.5 | 64 | 2025-09-30 | |
| Current ratio | 1.06x | [15-16] | 1.37x | 69.0 | 295 | 2025-09-30 | |
| Growth and financing, sleeve percentile 39.2 | |||||||
| Revenue growth, three-year compound | 6.9% | [2,8,10,12] | 1.5% | 24.3 | 269 | 2025-09-30 | |
| Free cash flow growth, three-year compound | 27.4% | [5,22-28] | 5.6% | 19.2 | 147 | 2025-09-30 | |
| Reinvestment rate | 52.7% | [15-16,18,22,29-33] | 7.3% | 25.8 | 152 | 2025-09-30 | |
| Asset growth, three years | 0.4% | [1,6,34-35] | 3.4% | 59.4 | 272 | 2025-09-30 | |
| Net share issuance, one year | 0.6% | [36-37] | (0.6%) | 67.1 | 211 | 2025-12-08 | |
Gross profitability. Revenue less cost of goods sold, over total assets.
Accruals ratio. Net income less operating cash flow, over average assets; lower is stronger.
Gross margin stability, five years. Standard deviation of gross margin; lower is stronger.
Twelve-month failure probability. CHS model; lower is stronger.
Net debt to EBITDA. Lower is stronger.
Net share issuance, one year. Split-adjusted; lower is stronger.
Sleeves are equal-weighted; within a sleeve each computable input carries equal weight. Composite -0.162; sampling error 2.9 percentile points on 258 peers.
Among 258 Peers [top]
Composite score of every graded peer, smoothed. Vertical rules are the letter band edges at the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles. Small dots are the six largest peers by market equity.
| Rank | Company | Percentile | Letter | Warnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | Williams Sonoma Inc. (WSM) Williams Sonoma Inc. (WSM) Bsecond fifth; percentile 29.2 NYSE · Retail-Home Furniture, Furnishings & Equipment Stores market equity $28.1B; last close $238.79 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 10 of 14 inputs | 29.2 | B | fortress balance sheet |
| 77 | Macy's, Inc. (M) Macy's, Inc. (M) Bsecond fifth; percentile 29.6 NYSE · Retail-Department Stores market equity $6.0B; last close $22.79 No active warnings; 12 of 14 inputs | 29.6 | B | |
| 78 | Ingles Markets Inc. (IMKTA) Ingles Markets Inc. (IMKTA) Bsecond fifth; percentile 30.0 Nasdaq · Retail-Grocery Stores last close $85.52 Warnings: late filer; 10 of 14 inputs | 30.0 | B | late filer |
| 79 | GAP Inc. (GAP) GAP Inc. (GAP) Bsecond fifth; percentile 30.4 NYSE · Retail-Family Clothing Stores market equity $8.2B; last close $23.37 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 9 of 14 inputs | 30.4 | B | fortress balance sheet |
| 80 | Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF) Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF) Bsecond fifth; percentile 30.7 Nasdaq · Wholesale-Groceries, General Line market equity $4.5B; last close $111.58 No active warnings; 11 of 14 inputs | 30.7 | B | |
| 81 | Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) Bsecond fifth; percentile 31.1 NYSE · Retail-Grocery Stores market equity $693.2M; last close $30.20 No active warnings; 11 of 14 inputs | 31.1 | B | |
| 82 | Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH) Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH) Bsecond fifth; percentile 31.7 NYSE · Retail-Eating Places last close $366.73 No active warnings; 7 of 14 inputs | 31.7 | B | |
| 83 | Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH-A) Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH-A) Bsecond fifth; percentile 31.7 NYSE · Retail-Eating Places last close $1,817.19 No active warnings; 7 of 14 inputs | 31.7 | B | |
| 84 | Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Bsecond fifth; percentile 32.3 NYSE · Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers market equity $294.8B; last close $295.47 No active warnings; 12 of 14 inputs | 32.3 | B | |
| 85 | Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) Bsecond fifth; percentile 32.7 NYSE · Retail-Catalog & Mail-Order Houses last close $15.41 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 9 of 14 inputs | 32.7 | B | fortress balance sheet |
| 86 | Pool Corp. (POOL) Pool Corp. (POOL) Bsecond fifth; percentile 33.1 Nasdaq · Wholesale-Misc Durable Goods market equity $5.8B; last close $158.13 No active warnings; 10 of 14 inputs | 33.1 | B |
| Peer policy | Letter | Percentile | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| all graded filers, equal sleeves | B | 21.9 | 2204 |
| sector peers, equal sleeves (the grade) | B | 31.1 | 258 |
| same exchange, equal sleeves | B | 29.5 | 984 |
| sector peers, equal inputs | B | 28.8 | 258 |
Each letter is one fifth of the 258 graded peers, about 51 companies. A boundary letter (A/B, B/C, C/D, D/E) marks a percentile within one sampling error of a band edge.
What the Price Implies [top]
Market measures at the 2026-10-08 close. None enters the grade. Percentile among graded peers with the same measure.
| Measure | Value | Peer median | Percentile | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twelve-month price change, skipping the latest month | (30.1%) | (0.1%) | 19 | hotter than 19 of 100 peers |
| Distance from 52-week high | (26.2%) | (24.1%) | 47 | closer to its high than 47 of 100 peers |
| EBIT to enterprise value | 9.1% | 5.3% | 82 | pricier than 18 of 100 peers |
| Free cash flow yield | 3.5% | 4.2% | 44 | pricier than 56 of 100 peers |
| Book value to price | 0.35 | 0.36 | 48 | pricier than 52 of 100 peers |
| Sales to price | 1.92 | 1.75 | 55 | pricier than 45 of 100 peers |
| Composite equity issuance, five years | (17.0%) | (16.7%) | 49 | more equity-funded than 49 of 100 peers |
| Relative strength against the sector, log excess return | (0.33) | 0.02 | 19 | ahead of 19 of 100 peers |
Inputs: market equity $693.2M; EBIT $62.0M; free cash flow $24.1M; book equity $239.4M; sales $1.3B; debt $8.5M; cash $17.5M[38].
Diagnostics [top]
Diagnostics do not feed the grade.
| Piotroski F-score: None of 9, period end 2025-09-30 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Return on assets above zero | 7.1% | ✓ pass[4,6] |
| Operating cash flow above zero | $55.3M | ✓ pass[5] |
| Return on assets improved | 2.0 pts | ✓ pass[4,6,34,39] |
| Operating cash flow exceeds net income | $8.9M | ✓ pass[4-5] |
| Long-term leverage fell | n/a[1,6,34,40] | |
| Current ratio improved | 16.3 pts | ✓ pass[15-16,32-33] |
| No new shares issued | 0.6% | ✗ fail[36-37] |
| Gross margin improved | 0.5 pts | ✓ pass[2-3,7-8] |
| Asset turnover improved | 17.5 pts | ✓ pass[2,6,8,34] |
| Cash, filings, liquidity | |
|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents | $17.5M[41] |
| Operating cash flow, four quarters | $70.7M[5,41-45] |
| Months of runway | not finite |
| trailing operating cash flow is nonnegative, so runway is not finite | |
| Late filings, two years | 0 |
| NT 10-K or NT 10-Q | |
| Days since last periodic filing | 64 |
| 10-Q received Aug 6, 2026 | |
| Median daily dollar volume | $3.5M |
| 63 sessions | |
| Days since newest grade input | 302 |
Downloads [top]
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Sources [top]
Every citation on this page. Filing opens the SEC index page for that submission; viewer opens the SEC interactive data for the same filing; series opens the SEC XBRL API record for that tag and company.
| # | Concept | XBRL tag | Value | Period end | Received | Form | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $670.5M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 2 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $1.3B | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 3 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $397.9M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 4 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | $46.4M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 5 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $55.3M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 6 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $655.5M | 2024-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 7 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $364.8M | 2024-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 8 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $1.2B | 2024-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 9 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $326.9M | 2023-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 10 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $1.1B | 2023-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 11 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $304.9M | 2022-09-30 | 2024-12-12 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 12 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $1.1B | 2022-09-30 | 2024-12-12 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 13 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $292.2M | 2021-09-30 | 2023-12-07 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 14 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $1.1B | 2021-09-30 | 2023-12-07 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 15 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $168.1M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 16 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $158.8M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 17 | retained earnings | us-gaap:RetainedEarningsAccumulatedDeficit | $149.3M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 18 | operating income | us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss | $62.0M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 19 | book equity | us-gaap:StockholdersEquity | $212.4M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 20 | liabilities | us-gaap:Liabilities | $458.1M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 21 | interest expense | us-gaap:InterestExpense | $3.1M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 22 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment | $31.2M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 23 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $73.8M | 2024-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 24 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment | $37.5M | 2024-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 25 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $64.6M | 2023-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 26 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment | $36.6M | 2023-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 27 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $39.7M | 2022-09-30 | 2024-12-12 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 28 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment | $28.0M | 2022-09-30 | 2024-12-12 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 29 | depreciation amortization | us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization | $31.8M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 30 | pretax income | us-gaap:IncomeLossFromContinuingOperationsBeforeIncomeTaxesExtraordinaryItemsNoncontrollingInterest | $58.9M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 31 | income tax | us-gaap:IncomeTaxExpenseBenefit | $12.5M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 32 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $147.1M | 2024-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 33 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $164.1M | 2024-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 34 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $669.2M | 2023-09-30 | 2024-12-12 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 35 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $663.1M | 2022-09-30 | 2023-12-07 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 36 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 23,033,093 | 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 37 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 22,905,797 | 2024-12-09 | 2024-12-12 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 38 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 23,045,851 | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 39 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | $33.9M | 2024-09-30 | 2025-12-11 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 40 | long term debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent | $0 | 2024-09-30 | 2024-12-12 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 41 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $17.5M | 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 42 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $55.1M | 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 43 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $43.8M | 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 44 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $21.1M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-05 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 45 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $39.7M | 2025-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
Limitations [top]
Grade boundary. Percentile 31.1 is 8.9 points from the nearest band edge; sampling error is 2.9 points.
Peer group. Sector assignment from four-digit SIC codes, hand-tuned and published. The grade under three alternative peer policies is tabled above.
Size. Within a sector the letter tracks size. Among graded filers in the smallest asset band, 72% grade E and 0% grade A; in the largest, 13% grade E and 21% grade A. Universe as of Oct 9, 2026.
Failure model. filings 2012-01-01 to 2019-12-31 fit, filings 2020-01-01 to 2025-12-31 test; status post hoc pending confirmation. pre-registered on 2026 filings once their 12-month outcome windows close; supported if the paired per-quintile gain over the pooled model has a lower bound above 0.05.
Input validity. Revenue or total assets at or below $100,000 sets the degenerate-inputs flag. An input whose denominator is at or below $100,000 is left not computable rather than ranked.
Returns. No input on this page has a post-2015 confidence interval on returns that excludes zero. The grade ranks reported financial condition and is not a return forecast.
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