Assay
Financial-condition grades for SEC filers
Company Report · as of Oct 9, 2026
|
| Novavax Inc.NVAX · healthcare | |
|---|---|
| Grade |  Eweakest fifth of 371 graded peers; percentile 83.5, sampling error 2.5 points; lower is stronger |
| Rank | 310 of 371 |
| Profitability | Cpercentile 51.6 |
| Solvency | Dpercentile 65.8 |
| Growth and financing | Dpercentile 66.2 |
| Reliability | 0.91 AUCfailure model, filers with $591M to $2.67B assets; 95% interval 0.88 to 0.94; 160 events, 2020 to 2025 |
| Peer failure rate | 1.01% a yearItem 1.03 bankruptcies, same asset band, 2012 to 2025 |
| Size band | $591M to $2.67B assetstotal assets $1.2B[1] |
| Standard universe | insiderevenue above $1M and assets above $10M[1-2] |
| Warnings | none activenot computable: fortress balance sheet |
| Inputs computable | 8 of 14 |
| Graded from | filings received through Feb 26, 2026225 days before the rescan; every figure keyed to the SEC receipt date |
| Last close | $11.002026-10-08; market equity $1.8B; iex feed |
| Price used in grade | None |
| Share price, twelve months to the rescansplit-adjusted close; a lollipop at every rescan carries the letter held then; baseline ticks are SEC receipt dates of the inputs; ranges and dragging scroll the full history | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Percentile at every rescan on file, Jan 21, 2012 to Oct 9, 2026; stronger toward the top. Hover for the date. Open this report as it stood on | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Each date opens the report as it stood on that rescan. |
Business, in the company's words. Opening of Item 1 of the 10-K received Feb 26, 2026; the document on sec.gov.
Novavax, Inc., together with our wholly owned subsidiaries, tackles some of the world’s most pressing health challenges with its scientific expertise in vaccines and its proven technology platform, including its Matrix-M™ adjuvant and protein-based nanoparticles. Our corporate growth strategy focuses on maximizing the impact of our cutting-edge technology by forging partnerships for our Matrix-M adjuvant and research and development (R&D) assets while maintaining a lean and focused operating model. Our technology platform, combined with our deep vaccine expertise, is the fuel for innovation and partnerships, and we believe it has the potential to create significant value.
The Fourteen Inputs [top]
Lower percentile is stronger. Source numbers open the SEC filing; a range that spans filings opens the sources table.
| Input | Percentile, 0 to 100 | Value | Source | Peer median | Percentile | Peers | Period end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profitability, sleeve percentile 51.6 | |||||||
| Gross profitability | 89.3% | [1-3] | 32.2% | 5.4 | 372 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Return on invested capital | not computable | 9.3% | |||||
| one or more required annual facts are missing | |||||||
| Accruals ratio | 50.1% | [1,4-6] | (6.6%) | 97.9 | 811 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Gross margin stability, five years | not computable | 2.8 pts | |||||
| five annual gross margins are required; found 4 | |||||||
| Solvency, sleeve percentile 65.8 | |||||||
| Twelve-month failure probability | 0.20% | 0.07% | 70.9 | 248 | 2026-06-30 | ||
| Altman Z double-prime | (7.28) | [1,7-12] | (0.31) | 57.1 | 756 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | not computable | 1.82x | |||||
| one or more required annual facts are missing | |||||||
| Interest coverage | not computable | (4.51x) | |||||
| latest aligned inputs end 2023-12-31; latest annual assets end 2025-12-31 | |||||||
| Current ratio | 2.13x | [7-8] | 2.96x | 69.3 | 839 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Growth and financing, sleeve percentile 66.2 | |||||||
| Revenue growth, three-year compound | (17.2%) | [2,13-15] | 10.0% | 88.4 | 415 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Free cash flow growth, three-year compound | not computable | 10.9% | |||||
| current FCF must be positive and base FCF must exceed $100,000 | |||||||
| Reinvestment rate | not computable | 37.1% | |||||
| pretax income must exceed the validity floor and imply a 0%-100% tax rate | |||||||
| Asset growth, three years | (19.5%) | [1,6,16-17] | 2.1% | 83.4 | 704 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Net share issuance, one year | 1.3% | [18-19] | 2.5% | 26.9 | 634 | 2026-02-16 | |
Gross profitability. Revenue less cost of goods sold, over total assets.
Accruals ratio. Net income less operating cash flow, over average assets; lower is stronger.
Gross margin stability, five years. Standard deviation of gross margin; lower is stronger.
Twelve-month failure probability. CHS model; lower is stronger.
Net debt to EBITDA. Lower is stronger.
Net share issuance, one year. Split-adjusted; lower is stronger.
Sleeves are equal-weighted; within a sleeve each computable input carries equal weight. Composite 0.255; sampling error 2.5 percentile points on 371 peers.
Among 371 Peers [top]
Composite score of every graded peer, smoothed. Vertical rules are the letter band edges at the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles. Small dots are the six largest peers by market equity.
| Rank | Company | Percentile | Letter | Warnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 305 | Accuray Inc. (ARAY) Accuray Inc. (ARAY) D/Eon the D/E boundary; percentile 82.2 Nasdaq · Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus market equity $28.8M; last close $0.24 Warnings: late filer; 7 of 14 inputs | 82.2 | D/E | late filer |
| 306 | Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) D/Eon the D/E boundary; percentile 82.4 Nasdaq · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) market equity $78.6B; last close $197.00 No active warnings; 8 of 14 inputs | 82.4 | D/E | |
| 307 | Stereotaxis, Inc. (STXS) Stereotaxis, Inc. (STXS) Eweakest fifth; percentile 82.7 NYSE · Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus market equity $111.2M; last close $1.11 No active warnings; 9 of 14 inputs | 82.7 | E | |
| 308 | SkinHealth Systems Inc. (SKIN) SkinHealth Systems Inc. (SKIN) Eweakest fifth; percentile 83.0 Nasdaq · Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus market equity $74.0M; last close $0.57 No active warnings; 8 of 14 inputs | 83.0 | E | |
| 309 | Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) Eweakest fifth; percentile 83.2 Nasdaq · Pharmaceutical Preparations market equity $13.6M; last close $0.60 Warnings: dilution, distress, fortress balance sheet; 7 of 14 inputs | 83.2 | E | dilution, distress, fortress balance sheet |
| 310 | Novavax Inc. (NVAX) Novavax Inc. (NVAX) Eweakest fifth; percentile 83.5 Nasdaq · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) market equity $1.8B; last close $11.00 No active warnings; 8 of 14 inputs | 83.5 | E | |
| 311 | Pyxis Oncology, Inc. (PYXS) Pyxis Oncology, Inc. (PYXS) Eweakest fifth; percentile 83.8 Nasdaq · Pharmaceutical Preparations market equity $166.0M; last close $1.99 Warnings: short runway, distress; 7 of 14 inputs | 83.8 | E | short runway, distress |
| 312 | Opko Health, Inc. (OPK) Opko Health, Inc. (OPK) Eweakest fifth; percentile 84.1 Nasdaq · Pharmaceutical Preparations market equity $1.0B; last close $1.36 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 8 of 14 inputs | 84.1 | E | fortress balance sheet |
| 313 | Amarin Corp. Plc\Uk (AMRN) Amarin Corp. Plc\Uk (AMRN) Eweakest fifth; percentile 84.3 Nasdaq · Pharmaceutical Preparations market equity $5.0B; last close $12.02 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 8 of 14 inputs | 84.3 | E | fortress balance sheet |
| 314 | Kalaris Therapeutics, Inc. (KLRS) Kalaris Therapeutics, Inc. (KLRS) Eweakest fifth; percentile 84.6 Nasdaq · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) market equity $59.5M; last close $2.50 Warnings: dilution; 7 of 14 inputs | 84.6 | E | dilution |
| 315 | Journey Medical Corp. (DERM) Journey Medical Corp. (DERM) Eweakest fifth; percentile 84.9 Nasdaq · Pharmaceutical Preparations market equity $68.8M; last close $5.95 No active warnings; 7 of 14 inputs | 84.9 | E |
| Peer policy | Letter | Percentile | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| all graded filers, equal sleeves | E | 90.7 | 2204 |
| sector peers, equal sleeves (the grade) | E | 83.5 | 371 |
| same exchange, equal sleeves | E | 87.3 | 1219 |
| sector peers, equal inputs | E | 84.9 | 371 |
Each letter is one fifth of the 371 graded peers, about 74 companies. A boundary letter (A/B, B/C, C/D, D/E) marks a percentile within one sampling error of a band edge.
What the Price Implies [top]
Market measures at the 2026-10-08 close. None enters the grade. Percentile among graded peers with the same measure.
| Measure | Value | Peer median | Percentile | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twelve-month price change, skipping the latest month | 8.1% | 8.0% | 50 | hotter than 50 of 100 peers |
| Distance from 52-week high | (12.3%) | (31.4%) | 79 | closer to its high than 79 of 100 peers |
| EBIT to enterprise value | 23.6% | (1.5%) | 99 | pricier than 1 of 100 peers |
| Free cash flow yield | 14.6% | (1.0%) | 94 | pricier than 6 of 100 peers |
| Book value to price | (0.11) | 0.28 | 6 | pricier than 94 of 100 peers |
| Sales to price | 0.62 | 0.31 | 73 | pricier than 27 of 100 peers |
| Composite equity issuance, five years | 80.3% | 20.3% | 74 | more equity-funded than 74 of 100 peers |
| Relative strength against the sector, log excess return | (0.13) | (0.14) | 50 | ahead of 50 of 100 peers |
Inputs: market equity $1.8B; EBIT $452.8M; free cash flow $265.5M; book equity -$190.7M; sales $1.1B; debt $291.5M; cash $191.5M[20].
Diagnostics [top]
Diagnostics do not feed the grade.
| Piotroski F-score: None of 9, period end 2025-12-31 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Return on assets above zero | 28.2% | ✓ pass[4,6] |
| Operating cash flow above zero | -$244.6M | ✗ fail[5] |
| Return on assets improved | 38.6 pts | ✓ pass[4,6,16,21] |
| Operating cash flow exceeds net income | -$684.9M | ✗ fail[4-5] |
| Long-term leverage fell | n/a[1,6,16] | |
| Current ratio improved | 114.9 pts | ✓ pass[7-8,22-23] |
| No new shares issued | 1.3% | ✗ fail[18-19] |
| Gross margin improved | 23.2 pts | ✓ pass[2-3,13,24] |
| Asset turnover improved | 34.0 pts | ✓ pass[2,6,13,16] |
| Cash, filings, liquidity | |
|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents | $191.5M[25] |
| Operating cash flow, four quarters | -$36.9M[5,25-29] |
| Months of runway | 62.3 |
| Late filings, two years | 0 |
| NT 10-K or NT 10-Q | |
| Days since last periodic filing | 64 |
| 10-Q received Aug 6, 2026 | |
| Median daily dollar volume | $37.9M |
| 63 sessions | |
| Days since newest grade input | 225 |
Downloads [top]
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Sources [top]
Every citation on this page. Filing opens the SEC index page for that submission; viewer opens the SEC interactive data for the same filing; series opens the SEC XBRL API record for that tag and company.
| # | Concept | XBRL tag | Value | Period end | Received | Form | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $1.2B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 2 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $1.1B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 3 | cost of revenue | us-gaap:CostOfRevenue | $73.0M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 4 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | $440.3M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 5 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | -$244.6M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 6 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $1.6B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 7 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $978.3M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 8 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $459.9M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 9 | retained earnings | us-gaap:RetainedEarningsAccumulatedDeficit | -$4.6B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 10 | operating income | us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss | $452.8M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 11 | book equity | us-gaap:StockholdersEquity | -$127.8M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 12 | liabilities | us-gaap:Liabilities | $1.3B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 13 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $682.2M | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 14 | revenue | us-gaap:Revenues | $983.7M | 2023-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 15 | revenue | us-gaap:Revenues | $2.0B | 2022-12-31 | 2025-02-27 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 16 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $1.8B | 2023-12-31 | 2025-02-27 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 17 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $2.3B | 2022-12-31 | 2024-02-28 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 18 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 162,935,945 | 2026-02-16 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 19 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 160,844,197 | 2025-02-18 | 2025-02-27 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 20 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 164,945,726 | 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 21 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | -$187.5M | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 22 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $1.1B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 23 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $1.2B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 24 | cost of revenue | us-gaap:CostOfRevenue | $202.7M | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 25 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $191.5M | 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 26 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | -$105.2M | 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 27 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | -$32.4M | 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 28 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | -$205.2M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 29 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | -$313.0M | 2025-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
Limitations [top]
Grade boundary. Percentile 83.5 is 3.5 points from the nearest band edge; sampling error is 2.5 points.
Peer group. Sector assignment from four-digit SIC codes, hand-tuned and published. The grade under three alternative peer policies is tabled above.
Size. Within a sector the letter tracks size. Among graded filers in the smallest asset band, 72% grade E and 0% grade A; in the largest, 13% grade E and 21% grade A. Universe as of Oct 9, 2026.
Failure model. filings 2012-01-01 to 2019-12-31 fit, filings 2020-01-01 to 2025-12-31 test; status post hoc pending confirmation. pre-registered on 2026 filings once their 12-month outcome windows close; supported if the paired per-quintile gain over the pooled model has a lower bound above 0.05.
Input validity. Revenue or total assets at or below $100,000 sets the degenerate-inputs flag. An input whose denominator is at or below $100,000 is left not computable rather than ranked.
Returns. No input on this page has a post-2015 confidence interval on returns that excludes zero. The grade ranks reported financial condition and is not a return forecast.
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