Assay
Financial-condition grades for SEC filers
Company Report · as of Oct 9, 2026
|
| Packaging Corp. OF AmericaPKG · manufacturing | |
|---|---|
| Grade |  Cmiddle fifth of 255 graded peers; percentile 44.9, sampling error 3.0 points; lower is stronger |
| Rank | 115 of 255 |
| Profitability | B/Cpercentile 38.6 |
| Solvency | B/Cpercentile 42.7 |
| Growth and financing | C/Dpercentile 60.8 |
| Reliability | 0.94 AUCfailure model, filers with over $2.67B assets; 95% interval 0.88 to 0.97; 61 events, 2020 to 2025 |
| Peer failure rate | 0.52% a yearItem 1.03 bankruptcies, same asset band, 2012 to 2025 |
| Size band | over $2.67B assetstotal assets $10.7B[1] |
| Standard universe | insiderevenue above $1M and assets above $10M[1-2] |
| Warnings | dilutionnot computable: distress |
| Inputs computable | 11 of 14 |
| Graded from | filings received through Feb 26, 2026225 days before the rescan; every figure keyed to the SEC receipt date |
| Last close | $229.732026-10-08; market equity $20.5B; iex feed |
| Price used in grade | None |
| Share price, twelve months to the rescansplit-adjusted close; a lollipop at every rescan carries the letter held then; baseline ticks are SEC receipt dates of the inputs; ranges and dragging scroll the full history | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Percentile at every rescan on file, Jan 21, 2012 to Oct 9, 2026; stronger toward the top. Hover for the date. Open this report as it stood on | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Each date opens the report as it stood on that rescan. |
Business, in the company's words. Opening of Item 1 of the 10-K received Feb 26, 2026; the document on sec.gov.
Packaging Corporation of America (“we,” “us,” “our,” “PCA,” or the “Company”) is the third largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper in North America. We operate ten mills and 91 corrugated products plants and related facilities. We are headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois and operate in the United States. We report in three reportable segments: Packaging, Paper and Corporate and Other. For segment financial information see Note 19, Segment Information, of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in “Part II, Item 8, Financial Statements and Supplementary Data” of this Form 10-K.
Warnings [top]
7 checks ran; none of them enters the letter. The checks are listed on the warnings screen.
The Fourteen Inputs [top]
Lower percentile is stronger. Source numbers open the SEC filing; a range that spans filings opens the sources table.
| Input | Percentile, 0 to 100 | Value | Source | Peer median | Percentile | Peers | Period end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profitability, sleeve percentile 38.6 | |||||||
| Gross profitability | 17.6% | [1,5] | 21.9% | 62.0 | 275 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Return on invested capital | 11.7% | [6-14] | 9.7% | 38.4 | 100 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Accruals ratio | (8.0%) | [1,15-17] | (3.6%) | 26.4 | 308 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Gross margin stability, five years | 1.5 pts | [2,5,18-25] | 2.1 pts | 27.6 | 229 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Solvency, sleeve percentile 42.7 | |||||||
| Twelve-month failure probability | not computable | 0.04% | |||||
| liabilities and a nearby cover-page share count are required at 2026-06-30 | |||||||
| Altman Z double-prime | not computable | 3.66 | |||||
| one or more required annual facts are missing | |||||||
| Net debt to EBITDA | 1.97x | [6,9,11,26] | 1.78x | 58.3 | 121 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Interest coverage | not computable | 5.09x | |||||
| one or more required annual facts are missing | |||||||
| Current ratio | 3.17x | [27-28] | 2.25x | 27.2 | 325 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Growth and financing, sleeve percentile 60.8 | |||||||
| Revenue growth, three-year compound | 2.0% | [2,19,21,23] | 2.1% | 50.4 | 269 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Free cash flow growth, three-year compound | 2.8% | [16,29-35] | 13.9% | 72.5 | 139 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Reinvestment rate | 17.2% | [6-8,26-29,36-37] | 26.4% | 54.3 | 139 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Asset growth, three years | 10.2% | [1,17,38-39] | 4.4% | 26.6 | 279 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Net share issuance, one year | 99,245.4% | [3-4] | 0.01% | 100.0 | 243 | 2026-02-20 | |
Gross profitability. Revenue less cost of goods sold, over total assets.
Accruals ratio. Net income less operating cash flow, over average assets; lower is stronger.
Gross margin stability, five years. Standard deviation of gross margin; lower is stronger.
Twelve-month failure probability. CHS model; lower is stronger.
Net debt to EBITDA. Lower is stronger.
Net share issuance, one year. Split-adjusted; lower is stronger.
Sleeves are equal-weighted; within a sleeve each computable input carries equal weight. Composite -0.060; sampling error 3.0 percentile points on 255 peers.
Among 255 Peers [top]
Composite score of every graded peer, smoothed. Vertical rules are the letter band edges at the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles. Small dots are the six largest peers by market equity.
| Rank | Company | Percentile | Letter | Warnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | Honeywell International Inc. (HON) Honeywell International Inc. (HON) B/Con the B/C boundary; percentile 42.9 Nasdaq · Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts market equity $65.5B; last close $206.47 No active warnings; 12 of 14 inputs | 42.9 | B/C | |
| 111 | Belden Inc. (BDC) Belden Inc. (BDC) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 43.3 NYSE · Drawing & Insulating of Nonferrous Wire market equity $4.2B; last close $108.14 No active warnings; 9 of 14 inputs | 43.3 | C | |
| 112 | CPS Technologies (CPSH) CPS Technologies (CPSH) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 43.7 Nasdaq · Pottery & Related Products market equity $69.8M; last close $3.58 Warnings: fortress balance sheet; 10 of 14 inputs | 43.7 | C | fortress balance sheet |
| 113 | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG) Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 44.1 Nasdaq · Glass Products, Made of Purchased Glass market equity $851.9M; last close $40.92 No active warnings; 12 of 14 inputs | 44.1 | C | |
| 114 | Terex Corp. (TEX) Terex Corp. (TEX) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 44.5 NYSE · Industrial Trucks, Tractors, Trailors & Stackers market equity $6.0B; last close $52.32 Warnings: dilution; 13 of 14 inputs | 44.5 | C | dilution |
| 115 | Packaging Corp. OF America (PKG) Packaging Corp. OF America (PKG) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 44.9 NYSE · Paperboard Containers & Boxes market equity $20.5B; last close $229.73 Warnings: dilution; 11 of 14 inputs | 44.9 | C | dilution |
| 116 | Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 45.3 NYSE · Ship & Boat Building & Repairing market equity $10.4B; last close $265.06 No active warnings; 9 of 14 inputs | 45.3 | C | |
| 117 | Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 45.7 Nasdaq · General Industrial Machinery & Equipment, NEC market equity $385.8M; last close $4.45 Warnings: dilution; 7 of 14 inputs | 45.7 | C | dilution |
| 118 | Ceco Environmental Corp. (CECO) Ceco Environmental Corp. (CECO) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 46.1 Nasdaq · Industrial & Commercial Fans & Blowers & Air Purifing Equip market equity $3.8B; last close $65.55 No active warnings; 12 of 14 inputs | 46.1 | C | |
| 119 | Dnow Inc. (DNOW) Dnow Inc. (DNOW) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 46.5 NYSE · Oil & Gas Field Machinery & Equipment market equity $2.8B; last close $15.65 Warnings: dilution; 8 of 14 inputs | 46.5 | C | dilution |
| 120 | Symbotic Inc. (SYM) Symbotic Inc. (SYM) Cmiddle fifth; percentile 46.9 Nasdaq · General Industrial Machinery & Equipment, NEC market equity $25.4B; last close $42.04 Warnings: late filer; 7 of 14 inputs | 46.9 | C | late filer |
| Peer policy | Letter | Percentile | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| all graded filers, equal sleeves | C | 46.1 | 2204 |
| sector peers, equal sleeves (the grade) | C | 44.9 | 255 |
| same exchange, equal sleeves | B | 33.4 | 984 |
| sector peers, equal inputs | C | 52.8 | 255 |
Each letter is one fifth of the 255 graded peers, about 51 companies. A boundary letter (A/B, B/C, C/D, D/E) marks a percentile within one sampling error of a band edge.
What the Price Implies [top]
Market measures at the 2026-10-08 close. None enters the grade. Percentile among graded peers with the same measure.
| Measure | Value | Peer median | Percentile | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twelve-month price change, skipping the latest month | 8.7% | 13.7% | 45 | hotter than 45 of 100 peers |
| Distance from 52-week high | (10.7%) | (24.3%) | 85 | closer to its high than 85 of 100 peers |
| EBIT to enterprise value | 4.6% | 4.1% | 54 | pricier than 46 of 100 peers |
| Free cash flow yield | 3.6% | 3.4% | 52 | pricier than 48 of 100 peers |
| Book value to price | 0.23 | 0.34 | 29 | pricier than 71 of 100 peers |
| Sales to price | 0.44 | 0.54 | 39 | pricier than 61 of 100 peers |
| Composite equity issuance, five years | (22.4%) | (9.5%) | 18 | more equity-funded than 18 of 100 peers |
| Relative strength against the sector, log excess return | (0.05) | (0.00) | 45 | ahead of 45 of 100 peers |
Inputs: market equity $20.5B; EBIT $1.1B; free cash flow $728.6M; book equity $4.7B; sales $9.0B; debt $4.0B; cash $442.8M[40].
Diagnostics [top]
Diagnostics do not feed the grade.
| Piotroski F-score: 4 of 9, period end 2025-12-31 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Return on assets above zero | 8.8% | ✓ pass[15,17] |
| Operating cash flow above zero | $1.6B | ✓ pass[16] |
| Return on assets improved | (0.5 pts) | ✗ fail[15,17,38,41] |
| Operating cash flow exceeds net income | $783.4M | ✓ pass[15-16] |
| Long-term leverage fell | 12.3 pts | ✗ fail[1,17,38,42-43] |
| Current ratio improved | (6.2 pts) | ✗ fail[27-28,36-37] |
| No new shares issued | 99,245.4% | ✗ fail[3-4] |
| Gross margin improved | (0.2 pts) | ✗ fail[2,5,18-19] |
| Asset turnover improved | 5.2 pts | ✓ pass[2,17,19,38] |
| Cash, filings, liquidity | |
|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents | $442.8M[44] |
| Operating cash flow, four quarters | $1.6B[16,44-48] |
| Months of runway | not finite |
| trailing operating cash flow is nonnegative, so runway is not finite | |
| Late filings, two years | 0 |
| NT 10-K or NT 10-Q | |
| Days since last periodic filing | 63 |
| 10-Q received Aug 7, 2026 | |
| Median daily dollar volume | $125.9M |
| 63 sessions | |
| Days since newest grade input | 225 |
Downloads [top]
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Sources [top]
Every citation on this page. Filing opens the SEC index page for that submission; viewer opens the SEC interactive data for the same filing; series opens the SEC XBRL API record for that tag and company.
| # | Concept | XBRL tag | Value | Period end | Received | Form | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $10.7B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 2 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $9.0B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 3 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 89,213,394,000 | 2026-02-20 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 4 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 89,801,225 | 2025-02-21 | 2025-02-27 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 5 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $1.9B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 6 | operating income | us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss | $1.1B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 7 | pretax income | us-gaap:IncomeLossFromContinuingOperationsBeforeIncomeTaxesExtraordinaryItemsNoncontrollingInterest | $1.0B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 8 | income tax | us-gaap:IncomeTaxExpenseBenefit | $253.7M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 9 | total debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebt | $4.0B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 10 | book equity | us-gaap:StockholdersEquity | $4.6B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 11 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $529.0M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 12 | total debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebt | $2.5B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 13 | book equity | us-gaap:StockholdersEquity | $4.4B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 14 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $685.0M | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 15 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | $774.1M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 16 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $1.6B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 17 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $8.8B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 18 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $1.8B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 19 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $8.4B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 20 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $1.7B | 2023-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 21 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $7.8B | 2023-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 22 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $2.1B | 2022-12-31 | 2025-02-27 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 23 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $8.5B | 2022-12-31 | 2025-02-27 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 24 | gross profit | us-gaap:GrossProfit | $1.9B | 2021-12-31 | 2024-02-29 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 25 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $7.7B | 2021-12-31 | 2024-02-29 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 26 | depreciation amortization | us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization | $652.8M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 27 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $3.2B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 28 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $1.0B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 29 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment | $828.9M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 30 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $1.2B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 31 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment | $669.7M | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 32 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $1.3B | 2023-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 33 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment | $469.7M | 2023-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 34 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $1.5B | 2022-12-31 | 2025-02-27 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 35 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment | $824.2M | 2022-12-31 | 2025-02-27 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 36 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $3.2B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 37 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $1.0B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 38 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $8.7B | 2023-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 39 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $8.0B | 2022-12-31 | 2025-02-27 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 40 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 89,098,299 | 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 41 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | $805.1M | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 42 | long term debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent | $4.0B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 43 | long term debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent | $2.5B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 44 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $442.8M | 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-07 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 45 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $705.3M | 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-07 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 46 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $329.3M | 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-08 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 47 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $1.1B | 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 48 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $638.7M | 2025-06-30 | 2026-08-07 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
Limitations [top]
Grade boundary. Percentile 44.9 is 4.9 points from the nearest band edge; sampling error is 3.0 points.
Peer group. Sector assignment from four-digit SIC codes, hand-tuned and published. The grade under three alternative peer policies is tabled above.
Size. Within a sector the letter tracks size. Among graded filers in the smallest asset band, 72% grade E and 0% grade A; in the largest, 13% grade E and 21% grade A. Universe as of Oct 9, 2026.
Failure model. filings 2012-01-01 to 2019-12-31 fit, filings 2020-01-01 to 2025-12-31 test; status post hoc pending confirmation. pre-registered on 2026 filings once their 12-month outcome windows close; supported if the paired per-quintile gain over the pooled model has a lower bound above 0.05.
Input validity. Revenue or total assets at or below $100,000 sets the degenerate-inputs flag. An input whose denominator is at or below $100,000 is left not computable rather than ranked.
Returns. No input on this page has a post-2015 confidence interval on returns that excludes zero. The grade ranks reported financial condition and is not a return forecast.
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