Assay
Financial-condition grades for SEC filers
Company Report · as of Oct 9, 2026
|
| GEO Group Inc.GEO · other | |
|---|---|
| Grade |  Dfourth fifth of 336 graded peers; percentile 69.9, sampling error 2.6 points; lower is stronger |
| Rank | 235 of 336 |
| Profitability | D/Epercentile 78.6 |
| Solvency | Cpercentile 50.1 |
| Growth and financing | Bpercentile 36.3 |
| Reliability | 0.94 AUCfailure model, filers with over $2.67B assets; 95% interval 0.88 to 0.97; 61 events, 2020 to 2025 |
| Peer failure rate | 0.52% a yearItem 1.03 bankruptcies, same asset band, 2012 to 2025 |
| Size band | over $2.67B assetstotal assets $3.8B[1] |
| Standard universe | insiderevenue above $1M and assets above $10M[1-2] |
| Warnings | none activenot computable: distress |
| Inputs computable | 9 of 14 |
| Graded from | filings received through Feb 25, 2026226 days before the rescan; every figure keyed to the SEC receipt date |
| Last close | $30.962026-10-08; market equity $4.1B; iex feed |
| Price used in grade | None |
| Share price, twelve months to the rescansplit-adjusted close; a lollipop at every rescan carries the letter held then; baseline ticks are SEC receipt dates of the inputs; ranges and dragging scroll the full history | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Percentile at every rescan on file, Jan 21, 2012 to Oct 9, 2026; stronger toward the top. Hover for the date. Open this report as it stood on | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Each date opens the report as it stood on that rescan. |
Business, in the company's words. Opening of Item 1 of the 10-K received Feb 25, 2026; the document on sec.gov.
As used in this report, the terms “we,” “us,” “our,” “GEO” and the “Company” refer to The GEO Group, Inc., its consolidated subsidiaries and its unconsolidated affiliates, unless otherwise expressly stated or the context otherwise requires. We specialize in the ownership, leasing and management of secure facilities, processing centers and reentry facilities and the provision of community-based services in the United States, Australia and South Africa. We own, lease and operate a broad range of secure facilities including maximum, medium and minimum-security facilities, processing centers, as well as community-based reentry facilities.
The Fourteen Inputs [top]
Lower percentile is stronger. Source numbers open the SEC filing; a range that spans filings opens the sources table.
| Input | Percentile, 0 to 100 | Value | Source | Peer median | Percentile | Peers | Period end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profitability, sleeve percentile 78.6 | |||||||
| Gross profitability | not computable | 27.1% | |||||
| one or more required annual facts are missing | |||||||
| Return on invested capital | 6.3% | [3-11] | 10.0% | 66.0 | 151 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Accruals ratio | 4.9% | [1,12-14] | (5.9%) | 91.3 | 506 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Gross margin stability, five years | not computable | 2.2 pts | |||||
| five annual gross margins are required; found 0 | |||||||
| Solvency, sleeve percentile 50.1 | |||||||
| Twelve-month failure probability | not computable | 0.04% | |||||
| liabilities and a nearby cover-page share count are required at 2026-06-30 | |||||||
| Altman Z double-prime | not computable | 2.05 | |||||
| one or more required annual facts are missing | |||||||
| Net debt to EBITDA | 4.11x | [3,6,8,15] | 2.52x | 71.0 | 184 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Interest coverage | 1.60x | [3,16] | 2.18x | 51.7 | 88 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Current ratio | 2.01x | [17-18] | 1.32x | 27.5 | 506 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Growth and financing, sleeve percentile 36.3 | |||||||
| Revenue growth, three-year compound | 3.5% | [2,19-21] | 5.1% | 55.2 | 403 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Free cash flow growth, three-year compound | not computable | 8.7% | |||||
| current FCF must be positive and base FCF must exceed $100,000 | |||||||
| Reinvestment rate | 139.4% | [3-5,15,17-18,22-24] | 11.9% | 8.5 | 190 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Asset growth, three years | 0.7% | [1,14,25-26] | 4.1% | 63.8 | 438 | 2025-12-31 | |
| Net share issuance, one year | (4.3%) | [27-28] | (0.4%) | 17.7 | 356 | 2026-02-23 | |
Gross profitability. Revenue less cost of goods sold, over total assets.
Accruals ratio. Net income less operating cash flow, over average assets; lower is stronger.
Gross margin stability, five years. Standard deviation of gross margin; lower is stronger.
Twelve-month failure probability. CHS model; lower is stronger.
Net debt to EBITDA. Lower is stronger.
Net share issuance, one year. Split-adjusted; lower is stronger.
Sleeves are equal-weighted; within a sleeve each computable input carries equal weight. Composite 0.109; sampling error 2.6 percentile points on 336 peers.
Among 336 Peers [top]
Composite score of every graded peer, smoothed. Vertical rules are the letter band edges at the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles. Small dots are the six largest peers by market equity.
| Rank | Company | Percentile | Letter | Warnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230 | Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) Dfourth fifth; percentile 68.4 NYSE · Railroads, Line-Haul Operating market equity $71.2B; last close $316.82 No active warnings; 10 of 14 inputs | 68.4 | D | |
| 231 | Arcbest Corp. (ARCB) Arcbest Corp. (ARCB) Dfourth fifth; percentile 68.7 Nasdaq · Trucking (No Local) market equity $2.9B; last close $129.95 No active warnings; 8 of 14 inputs | 68.7 | D | |
| 232 | Kelly Services Inc. (KELYA) Kelly Services Inc. (KELYA) Dfourth fifth; percentile 69.1 Nasdaq · Services-Help Supply Services last close $16.19 No active warnings; 7 of 14 inputs | 69.1 | D | |
| 233 | Kelly Services Inc. (KELYB) Kelly Services Inc. (KELYB) Dfourth fifth; percentile 69.1 Nasdaq · Services-Help Supply Services last close $22.64 No active warnings; 7 of 14 inputs | 69.1 | D | |
| 234 | Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) Dfourth fifth; percentile 69.6 NYSE · Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation market equity $5.2B; last close $146.87 No active warnings; 12 of 14 inputs | 69.6 | D | |
| 235 | GEO Group Inc. (GEO) GEO Group Inc. (GEO) Dfourth fifth; percentile 69.9 NYSE · General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs market equity $4.1B; last close $30.96 No active warnings; 9 of 14 inputs | 69.9 | D | |
| 236 | Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) Dfourth fifth; percentile 70.1 Nasdaq · Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo last close $26.43 Warnings: late filer; 8 of 14 inputs | 70.1 | D | late filer |
| 237 | DLH Holdings Corp. (DLHC) DLH Holdings Corp. (DLHC) Dfourth fifth; percentile 70.4 Nasdaq · Services-Help Supply Services market equity $61.6M; last close $4.17 No active warnings; 10 of 14 inputs | 70.4 | D | |
| 238 | Payoneer Global Inc. (PAYO) Payoneer Global Inc. (PAYO) Dfourth fifth; percentile 70.7 Nasdaq · Services-Business Services, NEC market equity $2.4B; last close $7.16 No active warnings; 8 of 14 inputs | 70.7 | D | |
| 239 | CuriosityStream Inc. (CURI) CuriosityStream Inc. (CURI) Dfourth fifth; percentile 71.0 Nasdaq · Services-Motion Picture & Video Tape Production market equity $174.5M; last close $2.94 No active warnings; 7 of 14 inputs | 71.0 | D | |
| 240 | Travel & Leisure Co. (TNL) Travel & Leisure Co. (TNL) Dfourth fifth; percentile 71.3 NYSE · Hotels & Motels market equity $3.8B; last close $62.61 No active warnings; 9 of 14 inputs | 71.3 | D |
| Peer policy | Letter | Percentile | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| all graded filers, equal sleeves | D | 68.6 | 2204 |
| sector peers, equal sleeves (the grade) | D | 69.9 | 336 |
| same exchange, equal sleeves | D | 73.1 | 984 |
| sector peers, equal inputs | C/D | 60.0 | 336 |
Each letter is one fifth of the 336 graded peers, about 67 companies. A boundary letter (A/B, B/C, C/D, D/E) marks a percentile within one sampling error of a band edge.
What the Price Implies [top]
Market measures at the 2026-10-08 close. None enters the grade. Percentile among graded peers with the same measure.
| Measure | Value | Peer median | Percentile | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twelve-month price change, skipping the latest month | 55.2% | 2.0% | 86 | hotter than 86 of 100 peers |
| Distance from 52-week high | (5.5%) | (26.8%) | 89 | closer to its high than 89 of 100 peers |
| EBIT to enterprise value | 4.5% | 4.4% | 53 | pricier than 47 of 100 peers |
| Free cash flow yield | (3.1%) | 4.1% | 18 | pricier than 82 of 100 peers |
| Book value to price | 0.37 | 0.34 | 55 | pricier than 45 of 100 peers |
| Sales to price | 0.65 | 0.70 | 46 | pricier than 54 of 100 peers |
| Composite equity issuance, five years | 8.2% | (8.8%) | 75 | more equity-funded than 75 of 100 peers |
| Relative strength against the sector, log excess return | 0.29 | (0.13) | 86 | ahead of 86 of 100 peers |
Inputs: market equity $4.1B; EBIT $257.5M; free cash flow -$124.9M; book equity $1.5B; sales $2.6B; debt $1.7B; cash $55.0M[29].
Diagnostics [top]
Diagnostics do not feed the grade.
| Piotroski F-score: None of 9, period end 2025-12-31 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Return on assets above zero | 7.0% | ✓ pass[12,14] |
| Operating cash flow above zero | $72.6M | ✓ pass[13] |
| Return on assets improved | 6.1 pts | ✓ pass[12,14,25,30] |
| Operating cash flow exceeds net income | -$181.8M | ✗ fail[12-13] |
| Long-term leverage fell | (2.6 pts) | ✓ pass[1,14,25,31-32] |
| Current ratio improved | 54.3 pts | ✓ pass[17-18,23-24] |
| No new shares issued | (4.3%) | ✓ pass[27-28] |
| Gross margin improved | n/a | |
| Asset turnover improved | 6.9 pts | ✓ pass[2,14,19,25] |
| Cash, filings, liquidity | |
|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents | $55.0M[33] |
| Operating cash flow, four quarters | $198.7M[13,33-37] |
| Months of runway | not finite |
| trailing operating cash flow is nonnegative, so runway is not finite | |
| Late filings, two years | 0 |
| NT 10-K or NT 10-Q | |
| Days since last periodic filing | 64 |
| 10-Q received Aug 6, 2026 | |
| Median daily dollar volume | $63.2M |
| 63 sessions | |
| Days since newest grade input | 226 |
Downloads [top]
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Sources [top]
Every citation on this page. Filing opens the SEC index page for that submission; viewer opens the SEC interactive data for the same filing; series opens the SEC XBRL API record for that tag and company.
| # | Concept | XBRL tag | Value | Period end | Received | Form | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $3.8B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 2 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $2.6B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 3 | operating income | us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss | $257.5M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 4 | pretax income | us-gaap:IncomeLossFromContinuingOperationsBeforeIncomeTaxesMinorityInterestAndIncomeLossFromEquityMethodInvestments | $335.5M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 5 | income tax | us-gaap:IncomeTaxExpenseBenefit | $85.7M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 6 | total debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebt | $1.7B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 7 | book equity | us-gaap:StockholdersEquity | $1.5B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 8 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $69.0M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 9 | total debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebt | $1.7B | 2024-12-31 | 2025-02-28 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 10 | book equity | us-gaap:StockholdersEquity | $1.3B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 11 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $76.9M | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 12 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | $254.4M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 13 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $72.6M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 14 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $3.6B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 15 | depreciation amortization | us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization | $132.0M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 16 | interest expense | us-gaap:InterestExpense | $160.5M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 17 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $718.5M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 18 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $356.9M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 19 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $2.4B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 20 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $2.4B | 2023-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 21 | revenue | us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | $2.4B | 2022-12-31 | 2025-02-28 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 22 | capital expenditure | us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment | $197.5M | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 23 | current assets | us-gaap:AssetsCurrent | $500.2M | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 24 | current liabilities | us-gaap:LiabilitiesCurrent | $340.2M | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 25 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $3.7B | 2023-12-31 | 2025-02-28 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 26 | assets | us-gaap:Assets | $3.8B | 2022-12-31 | 2024-02-29 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 27 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 134,361,648 | 2026-02-23 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 28 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 140,379,419 | 2025-02-24 | 2025-02-28 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 29 | shares outstanding | dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding | 131,619,584 | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 30 | net income | us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss | $32.0M | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 31 | long term debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent | $1.6B | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 32 | long term debt | us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent | $1.7B | 2024-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | filing · viewer · series |
| 33 | cash | us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue | $55.0M | 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 34 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $236.5M | 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 35 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $156.5M | 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 36 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $189.9M | 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
| 37 | operating cash flow | us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities | $110.4M | 2025-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | filing · viewer · series |
Limitations [top]
Grade boundary. Percentile 69.9 is 9.9 points from the nearest band edge; sampling error is 2.6 points.
Peer group. Sector assignment from four-digit SIC codes, hand-tuned and published. The grade under three alternative peer policies is tabled above.
Size. Within a sector the letter tracks size. Among graded filers in the smallest asset band, 72% grade E and 0% grade A; in the largest, 13% grade E and 21% grade A. Universe as of Oct 9, 2026.
Failure model. filings 2012-01-01 to 2019-12-31 fit, filings 2020-01-01 to 2025-12-31 test; status post hoc pending confirmation. pre-registered on 2026 filings once their 12-month outcome windows close; supported if the paired per-quintile gain over the pooled model has a lower bound above 0.05.
Input validity. Revenue or total assets at or below $100,000 sets the degenerate-inputs flag. An input whose denominator is at or below $100,000 is left not computable rather than ranked.
Returns. No input on this page has a post-2015 confidence interval on returns that excludes zero. The grade ranks reported financial condition and is not a return forecast.
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